2026 World Cup Group G Guide: Odds, Picks & Team Analysis
Updated June 4, 2026
Updated June 4, 2026
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/I_UofCTyB2M
2026 FIFA World Cup · Group Stage
Belgium · Egypt · Iran · New Zealand | Seattle · Los Angeles · Vancouver
🇧🇪
Belgium
FIFA #9
-255
group win
🇪🇬
Egypt
FIFA #29
+450
group win
🇮🇷
Iran
FIFA #21
+600
group win
🇳🇿
New Zealand
FIFA #85
+2000
group win
Overview
Fixtures & Odds
Standings
Best Bets
Belgium
Belgium is the overwhelming favourite but the question of what comes after the Golden Generation is the story of this group. De Bruyne and Lukaku arrive for likely their final World Cup, flanked by a wave of younger attackers who could carry Belgium deep into the knockout rounds -- if the defence holds up and the transitions are managed well.
Group G is one of the most lopsided on paper of any group in the 2026 tournament. Belgium, ranked 9th in the world and priced at -255 to win the group, face opponents who collectively have never reached a World Cup knockout round. Egypt have qualified only four times in history and have never won a game at the finals. Iran have been to seven World Cups and lost out at the group stage every time. New Zealand are making only their third World Cup appearance and have never won a match in the competition. On paper, Belgium should cruise through. The more interesting question is what they carry into the knockout rounds.
The central narrative of Group G is a question about Belgium that has been building for a decade: a generation ranked number one in the world for years, capable of beating anyone on any given day, that never converted talent into silverware. Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Thibaut Courtois arrive for what is almost certainly their last World Cup. Alongside them is a genuinely exciting new wave in Jeremy Doku, Dodi Lukebakio and Charles De Ketelaere. Manager Rudi Garcia has managed the transition well, winning qualification comfortably and producing a 5-2 demolition of the United States in March, but the defensive structure remains a legitimate concern heading into the knockout phase that will follow a straightforward group stage.
The genuine competitive interest in Group G lies entirely in the race for second place. Egypt, led by Mohamed Salah in what is almost certainly his final World Cup appearance, carry the individual quality and defensive organisation to earn that spot. Salah missed the March international window through injury and has confirmed he will leave Liverpool at the end of the season, adding an emotional weight to his campaign. Omar Marmoush at Manchester City provides the ideal complement. Iran, ranked 21st in the world, are the dark horse: tactically disciplined under Amir Ghalenoei, with Mehdi Taremi as a reliable focal point and a compact mid-block that will frustrate both Belgium and Egypt. The Iran vs Egypt match is effectively the group decider for second place. New Zealand, making their third World Cup appearance after 16 years away, are the clear underdogs but Chris Wood's return from a long knee injury and a 4-1 win over Chile in March without their first-choice goalkeeper provide reasons for cautious optimism. Their only realistic route to the knockout round runs through beating Iran.
Team | Confederation | Method | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
🇧🇪 Belgium | UEFA | Group winners | Won Group J, unbeaten |
🇪🇬 Egypt | CAF | Group winners | 8W 2D 0L in Group D |
🇮🇷 Iran | AFC | Group winners | AFC Round 3 Group A winners |
🇳🇿 New Zealand | OFC | Group winners | Won all 5 OFC qualifying matches |
Team | Win group | Advance | Win WC |
|---|---|---|---|
🇧🇪 Belgium | 69% | 96% | +3500 |
🇪🇬 Egypt | 18% | 77% | +10000 |
🇮🇷 Iran | 9% | 68% | +10000 |
🇳🇿 New Zealand | 4% | 30% | +100000 |
Belgium vs Egypt
3:00 PM ET · Mon June 15
Lumen Field, Seattle
BEL -165
Draw +270
EGY +420
Iran vs New Zealand
9:00 PM ET · Mon June 15
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood (Los Angeles)
IRN -175
Draw +270
NZL +450
Belgium vs Iran
3:00 PM ET · Sun June 21
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood (Los Angeles)
BEL -220
Draw +290
IRN +580
New Zealand vs Egypt
9:00 PM ET · Sun June 21
BC Place, Vancouver
NZL +380
Draw +290
EGY -165
Egypt vs Iran
11:00 PM ET · Fri June 26
Lumen Field, Seattle
EGY -130
Draw +250
IRN +330
New Zealand vs Belgium
11:00 PM ET · Fri June 26
BC Place, Vancouver
NZL +700
Draw +380
BEL -300
Odds via FanDuel. Lines subject to change.
Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | Egypt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Iran | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | New Zealand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top 2 teams per group qualify automatically for the Round of 32. The 8 best third-place teams across all 12 groups also advance. Tiebreakers in order: points, goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head, fair play, drawing of lots.
Best value
Egypt to advance from group
-300
Egypt's advance probability sits around 77 percent in the models and yet they carry meaningful implied uncertainty in the market. Salah's injury concern and a squad heavy with domestic players understandably soften the price, but the Pharaohs have never had a better chance to record their first World Cup wins. The match against New Zealand in Vancouver is a genuine must-win that they are well equipped to take, and the expanded 48-team format means even a single win could be enough to bank the third-place wildcard. At the implied price, Egypt advancing is the most straightforward value play in the group.
Match pick
Iran draw or win vs New Zealand (MD1)
-290
Iran are the better-organised and more experienced side in this matchup and this is effectively their group decider. A 20th-ranked team against an 85th-ranked opponent playing their first competitive game in 16 years. Ghalenoei's compact defensive structure is built for exactly this kind of fixture: neutralise the threat, wear down the opponent, and find Taremi in transition. Iran should be professional here. The heavy price reflects the gap in quality, but controlling a game for a point or three points is what this Iran side does.
Long shot
Egypt to win Group G
+450
Belgium's defensive record in qualifying was poor, and they have a pattern of struggling to manage leads and transitions in tournament football. Egypt beat Spain in a World Cup warm-up and have the individual quality to spring an upset in Seattle. If Salah is fully fit and Marmoush fires, this is the most dangerous group game Belgium face before the knockouts. The Egypt group win price is worth a small stake for anyone who believes in the Salah factor.
The group winner market is as clean as any in the tournament. Belgium at -255 implies roughly a 72 percent chance of topping the group, and nothing in the research contradicts that. Their attacking depth is genuinely formidable: De Bruyne, Doku, Lukebakio, Lukaku and Trossard give Rudi Garcia options that no other team in this group can match. What keeps the odds from being shorter is the familiar Belgian question around defensive compactness and the ageing of key veterans. Courtois at Real Madrid is expected to be fit, and his presence transforms the team's ceiling, but the full-backs pushing high leave space that a transitional side like Iran is built to exploit.
The second-place market is the sharpest betting angle in Group G. Egypt at -300 to advance is not particularly generous, but the third-place wildcard route in the expanded format means even a 4-point haul from three games carries strong chances. The most interesting match on the fixture list is Egypt vs Iran on June 26, the simultaneous final-day game in Seattle that will almost certainly determine second place. Egypt's 4-2-3-1 with Salah and Marmoush is better equipped for open, decisive football, while Iran will try to grind out the draw and advance on points. That matchup at +250 for a draw reflects genuine uncertainty and is worth consideration for those who have watched Iran's recent results in tight games.
MS
Mohamed Salah anytime scorer
Egypt vs Belgium (MD1)
+160
MT
Mehdi Taremi anytime scorer
Iran vs New Zealand (MD1)
+130
JD
Jeremy Doku anytime scorer
Belgium vs Iran (MD2)
+210
Odds correct at time of writing via FanDuel. Lines subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
🇧🇪
Belgium
Rudi Garcia · 4-2-3-1
3rd place 2018. QF 2014. R16 2022
-255 group win
The question of whether Belgium's Golden Generation would ever win something is now closed. They did not. What arrives at the 2026 World Cup is something more nuanced and, in some ways, more interesting: a squad in the middle of a genuine generational handover, with Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku present in what are almost certainly their final World Cup performances, flanked by a wave of young attackers who rank among the most exciting players in Europe. Jeremy Doku at Manchester City, Lois Openda at Juventus and Dodi Lukebakio at Benfica and Charles De Ketelaere at Atalanta give Rudi Garcia an attacking upper tier that could embarrass any defence in the tournament. De Bruyne, now at Napoli after his long Manchester City career, remains the controlling intelligence of the side when fit. Youri Tielemans was appointed permanent captain in September 2025 and, after a difficult injury-hit club season at Aston Villa, has returned to fitness in April. Amadou Onana provides the physical engine in central midfield. The concern is defensive. Belgium conceded far too frequently in qualifying, and their pattern of releasing the full-backs aggressively leaves them exposed to counter-attacking teams. Thibaut Courtois at Real Madrid is the single biggest mitigating factor: when he is on form, he routinely keeps Belgium in games they have no right to be in. Group G is comfortably the easiest draw a team of Belgium's ranking could have hoped for, and they should win it handily. What matters is what they carry into the Round of 32 and beyond.
GK
GK
Courtois
Real Madrid
DEF
RB
Castagne
Fulham
CB
Debast
Sporting CP
CB
Theate
Frankfurt
LB
De Cuyper
Brighton
MID
DM
Onana
Aston Villa
DM
Tielemans
Aston Villa
ATT
RW
Lukebakio
Benfica
CAM
De Bruyne
Napoli
LW
Doku
Man City
ST
ST
Lukaku
Napoli
Attack
88
Defence
65
Midfield
84
Depth
82
Strengths
Kevin De Bruyne, Jeremy Doku, Dodi Lukebakio and Romelu Lukaku represent an attacking pool that is simply out of the reach of any other team in this group to match or contain consistently across 90 minutes
Thibaut Courtois at Real Madrid is one of the three best goalkeepers on the planet and routinely covers for defensive errors that would cost lesser teams. His presence raises Belgium's floor significantly in tight games
The new generation in Doku, Lukebakio and De Ketelaere are 23-30 years old and in peak form at elite clubs. This is not a squad running on the fumes of 2018. There is genuine attacking talent with years ahead of it
Weaknesses
Belgium's defensive record in qualifying was poor, with goals conceded too regularly, and the pattern of full-backs pushing high leaves them vulnerable on the counter. Iran and Egypt are both built to exploit that space
De Bruyne at 34 and Lukaku at 32 carry significant injury risk across a tournament schedule. Both have had fitness issues in the past year. Losing either for a key match changes Belgium's profile meaningfully
The Golden Generation did not deliver on its promise and some of that psychological weight travels with this squad. Belgium have never converted individual quality into collective silverware, and the transition between generations adds tactical uncertainty around what the best XI actually is
Projected finish
Quarterfinal
Win probability
3.5%
Advance chance
96%
🇪🇬
Egypt
Hossam Hassan · 4-3-3
Group stage 1934, 1990, 2018. Never won a WC match
+450 group win
Egypt's World Cup story in 2026 is inseparable from Mohamed Salah's story. The Liverpool forward, who announced in March that he will leave the club at the end of the season after nine years at Anfield, arrives at what will almost certainly be his final World Cup at 33 years old. He has scored 67 international goals, just two behind manager Hossam Hassan's all-time Egypt record, and he has been the central reason Egypt qualified in such dominant fashion, scoring 9 times across the campaign. Egypt have never won a World Cup match in four previous appearances. Salah has been building toward correcting that record for years. The ideal complement is Omar Marmoush at Manchester City, whose scoring and pressing ability take pressure off Salah and make Egypt genuinely difficult to sit deep against. The defensive structure under Hassan is exceptional: seven clean sheets in qualifying, only two goals conceded across 10 matches, built on a compact 4-2-3-1 that narrows the central zones and forces opponents wide. Mohamed Hany, Ahmed Fattouh, Marwan Attia, Hamdi Fathi and Emam Ashour provide the experienced domestic core that fills the gaps around the two Premier League attackers. Egypt's path to the knockout round is clear: beat Iran or New Zealand, or collect enough points from the expanded third-place wildcard format. The matchup against Belgium in Seattle on June 15 will define the group's character -- and may be the best chance any team in Group G has to upset the Red Devils.
GK
GK
El Shenawy
Al Ahly
DEF
RB
Hany
Al Ahly
CB
Abdelmaguid
Al Ahly
CB
Rabia
Al Ain
LB
Fattouh
Zamalek
MID
DM
Attia
Al Ahly
CM
Hamdi Fathi
Al Wakrah
CM
Ashour
Al Ahly
FWD
RW
Salah
Liverpool
ST
M. Mohamed
Nantes
LW
Marmoush
Man City
Attack
75
Defence
78
Set pieces
72
Organisation
82
Strengths
The Salah-Marmoush pairing is a genuine dual threat that no team in this group can neutralise completely. When both are on form, Egypt are capable of beating any side they face
Egypt's defensive record in qualifying was the best of any African team. Hassan has built a compact, disciplined structure that is extremely difficult to break down and punishes teams that overcommit
Egypt have nothing to lose and everything to gain. For Salah in particular, the emotional weight of a final World Cup campaign on the biggest stage is a genuine motivating force
Weaknesses
Egypt have never won a World Cup match across four previous appearances, and the mental baggage of that record is real. Tight games at this level require composure under pressure that the squad has not yet demonstrated at a World Cup
The squad beyond Salah and Marmoush is still heavily drawn from the Egyptian Premier League, with Trezeguet and Zizo strong squad options rather than guaranteed starters. The step up in quality, intensity and tactical sophistication against World Cup-level European opposition is significant
Salah missed the March international window through injury and his fitness going into the tournament is the single most important variable for Egypt's chances. Without him at close to 100 percent, the attacking ceiling drops sharply
Projected finish
Round of 32
Win probability
0.3%
Advance chance
77%
🇮🇷
Iran
Amir Ghalenoei · 4-2-3-1
Group stage 1978, 1998, 2006, 2014, 2018, 2022. Never advanced
+600 group win
Iran arrive at their seventh World Cup carrying the same ambition and the same frustration that has defined every previous appearance: a organised, tactically mature, physically disciplined team that has never managed to convert competitive performances into a first group-stage exit. Amir Ghalenoei, in his second stint as manager, has built a compact and pragmatic side around Mehdi Taremi at Olympiacos, who has scored 16 goals in 35 appearances for his club this season including a Champions League goal against Real Madrid. Taremi is Iran's captain, third all-time leading scorer and the lone outright world-class player on the squad. The rest of the XI is largely drawn from the Persian Gulf Pro League, with Saeid Ezatolahi at Shabab Al Ahli and Saman Ghoddos at Kalba providing the midfield structure. Alireza Beiranvand remains the first-choice goalkeeper after more than a decade of service. The preparation has been overshadowed by serious political events at home in early 2026, with Iranian athletes among those killed during domestic protests, creating an environment of uncertainty around the squad's cohesion and morale. Sardar Azmoun's continued injury absence reduces the attacking depth behind Taremi to concerning levels. Iran are best placed if the competition for second is decided on defensive solidity rather than attacking output. They are very hard to beat and the June 26 matchup with Egypt is their most important game.
GK
GK
Beiranvand
Tractor
DEF
RB
Hardani
Sepahan
CB
Khalilzadeh
Tractor
CB
Kanaanizadegan
Persepolis
LB
Mohammadi
Persepolis
MID
DM
Ezatolahi
Sh. Al Ahli
DM
Ghoddos
Kalba
ATT
RW
Jahanbakhsh
Dender
CAM
Ghayedi
Al-Nasr
LW
Mohebi
Rostov
ST
ST
Taremi
Olympiacos
Defence
76
Organisation
80
Set pieces
68
Attack
60
Strengths
Iran are extremely difficult to score against when organised in their compact mid-block. They conceded fewer than a goal per game across AFC qualifying and held Japan and South Korea to draws. The defensive structure is the foundation of everything
Taremi is a genuinely world-class striker who has thrived at Porto, Inter Milan and now Olympiacos. He gives Iran a focal point, aerial presence and clinical finishing that elevates the team's offensive ceiling well above what the rest of the squad suggests
A fourth consecutive World Cup appearance with essentially the same tactical blueprint means this squad knows exactly what it is doing in tournament football. Ghalenoei's pragmatic approach is well suited to grinding out points
Weaknesses
The attacking depth behind Taremi is severely limited, particularly with Sardar Azmoun carrying injury. If Taremi is marked out of the game or picks up a knock, Iran's route to goal disappears almost entirely
A squad almost entirely composed of players from the Persian Gulf Pro League means the quality gap against Belgium and Egypt is significant. Beyond Taremi, Ezatolahi and Jahanbakhsh, the technical level drops sharply
The political situation in Iran and the uncertainty around squad morale and preparation is a real variable that is impossible to fully price. Tournaments are played in the head as much as on the pitch, and this squad carries unusual external pressure
Projected finish
Group stage
Win probability
0.1%
Advance chance
68%
🇳🇿
New Zealand
Darren Bazeley · 4-3-3
Group stage 1982 (0W 0D 3L). Group stage 2010 (0W 3D 0L, only unbeaten team)
+2000 group win
New Zealand return to the World Cup for the first time in 16 years after dominating OFC qualifying in record fashion, winning all 5 matches by a combined margin of +28 goals and conceding only once. The gulf between Oceanian qualifying and the group stage of the expanded World Cup is, however, enormous. The All Whites have never won a match at the finals in two previous appearances. Head coach Darren Bazeley, the former Watford and Wolves defender who has been in charge since 2023, has built a collective team that draws from the English Championship, Australian A-League and scattered European leagues. Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest is the captain, record scorer and only player in the squad with sustained top-level Premier League experience. He scored 20 Premier League goals in 2024-25 before a serious knee injury in October 2025 sidelined him until April 2026. His return to the Forest first team in the Europa League quarter-final against Porto is enormously significant for New Zealand's chances. Liberato Cacace at Wrexham provides the best creative outlet from left-back. Marko Stamenic at Swansea and Joe Bell at Viking form a functional double pivot. The March FIFA Series in Auckland produced a 4-1 win over Chile without Wood and without several key starters, which is the most encouraging data point in months. The defensive frailty from set pieces exposed by Finland's first goal is the one tactical problem Bazeley needs to fix before June. New Zealand's only realistic path to the knockout rounds runs through beating Iran in Los Angeles on June 15. That is a tall order against a 20th-ranked team in a defined tournament setting, but it is not impossible.
GK
GK
Crocombe
Millwall
DEF
RB
Bindon
Sheff Utd
CB
Boxall
Minnesota
CB
Surman
Portland
LB
Cacace
Empoli
MID
DM
Bell
Viking
CM
Stamenic
Swansea
CM
Old
St-Etienne
FWD
RW
Just
Motherwell
ST
Wood
Nott'm F
LW
Singh
UD Leiria
Attack
52
Defence
58
Pressing
62
Team shape
65
Strengths
Chris Wood is a genuine Premier League-level striker who gives New Zealand an aerial focal point and clinical finishing ability that is well above what an 85th-ranked team typically carries. His experience over 15 years in English football is irreplaceable
The 2010 squad drew all three games to finish as the only unbeaten team in that tournament, including a draw with Italy. New Zealand have a tradition of being organised, difficult and resilient at World Cups despite limited resources
A 4-1 win over Chile in March without Wood or the first-choice goalkeeper showed the attacking potential of the group when in the right environment. Eli Just and Logan Rogerson both took their chances, and Bazeley has options
Weaknesses
The gap between New Zealand and any top-20 nation is simply enormous. Belgium, Egypt and Iran are all better-resourced, better-coached and more tactically developed. New Zealand need everything to go right to pick up any points beyond the Iran game
Chris Wood returned from knee surgery only weeks before the tournament. His fitness, sharpness and ability to play three games in 11 days across the group stage is a genuine concern. He is 34 and this injury was serious
Set-piece defending was exposed in the Finland game in March and that problem cannot follow the team into a group where De Bruyne and Salah are delivering corners and free kicks. One lapse can change a match
Projected finish
Group stage
Win probability
0.01%
Advance chance
30%
Affiliate DisclosureATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
