Belgium open Group G against Egypt on June 15 in Seattle, and the betting market has landed in a sensible place. Belgium are favored around -160 to -170 on the moneyline, with the draw near +285 to +330 and Egypt around +425. That price respects Belgium’s stronger top-end talent and recent scoring surge, but it also leaves room for a tricky opener against an Egypt side that has looked compact, disciplined, and dangerous enough through Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush.
Belgium vs Egypt Pick
- Pick: Belgium to win and under 3.5 goals
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Belgium vs Egypt Match Preview
Belgium come into this match with the cleaner form line. Rudi Garcia’s team beat Tunisia 5-0 in its final warm-up, after a 2-0 win away to Croatia, a 1-1 draw with Mexico, a 5-2 win over the United States, and a 7-0 qualifying win over Liechtenstein. That is 20 goals scored and 3 conceded across their last 5 matches, which gives the favorite case some real weight.
Kevin De Bruyne remains the creative hub, while Leandro Trossard, Charles De Ketelaere, Dodi Lukebakio, and Jeremy Doku give Belgium more ways to attack than the older version of this team had. Romelu Lukaku is the key wild card. He has been involved again after injury issues, but Belgium may still manage his minutes rather than build the whole plan around him from the opening whistle.
That matters for the bet. Belgium should control more of the ball and territory, but this may not become a free-flowing match from the first 10 minutes. Egypt are not built to trade chances for 90 minutes. Hossam Hassan’s team held Spain to a 0-0 draw in March, beat Russia 1-0, beat Saudi Arabia 4-0, and then lost 2-1 to Brazil in a warm-up where Salah returned for the second half and looked sharp enough to be central here.
Egypt’s path is clear. They need to keep the game tight, protect central spaces, and find moments for Salah, Marmoush, and Trezeguet to run into space. Belgium’s back line can still be tested by quick transitions, but Thibaut Courtois being available gives the favorite a major safety net. If Egypt are chasing late, Belgium’s bench quality should also matter.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline: Belgium are priced around -160 to -170, with Egypt near +425 and the draw between +285 and +330.
- Total goals: Over 2.5 is around -105, while under 2.5 is closer to -120.
- Belgium form: Belgium have scored 20 goals in their last 5 matches and conceded just 3.
- Egypt form: Egypt have allowed only 2 goals across their last 5 matches in normal time, including clean sheets against Spain, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Nigeria.
- Key angle: Belgium should have the better chance volume, but Egypt’s recent profile makes the under worth pairing with the favorite rather than chasing a big Belgium score.
The straight Belgium moneyline is fair, but it is not cheap enough to be the most interesting betting angle. Belgium to win and under 3.5 goals fits the matchup better. Egypt can frustrate favorites, and Salah gives them a real counterattacking threat, but Belgium’s midfield control, set-piece quality, and deeper attacking group should eventually decide it.
Belgium vs Egypt Model Projection
- Score Projection: Belgium 2 – Egypt 0
- Win Probability: Belgium 61%, Draw 24%, Egypt 15%
This projects as a professional opening win for Belgium rather than a blowout. Egypt are good enough to keep the match live deep into the second half, especially if Salah gets space behind the Belgian fullbacks, but Belgium have too many ways to create chances and enough defensive cover with Courtois behind them.
The pick is Belgium to win and under 3.5 goals, with a 2-0 score projection. Belgium’s recent scoring form is hard to ignore, but Egypt’s defensive structure and slower match script make a controlled favorite win the better betting read.
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