Updated May 20, 2026
Tottenham ML at -110 is our pick. The model puts the probability at 52%, against the 47.6% implied by the current line, giving a 4.4% edge. Spurs need one point to guarantee Premier League survival, while West Ham need to beat Leeds and hope Everton win here.
The motivation gap is enormous. Spurs are fighting for their top-flight existence while Everton, sitting 12th and with nothing riding on the result, travel to a desperate Tottenham Hotspur Stadium knowing they have no incentive either way. The injury list is brutal as it has been all season, but De Zerbi has enough to get a result in a game Spurs cannot afford to lose. Fair price: -108.
Match
Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton
Kickoff
Sun May 24 — 11:00 AM ET
Venue
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Competition
Premier League — GW38
Spurs ML
-110
Draw / Everton ML
+240 / +320
Spurs 52% Draw 26% Everton 22%
Projected score
2 - 1
Spurs win
Reverse fixture
2 - 0
Spurs win at Everton, Oct 2025
Best bet
Tottenham ML
-110
Model edge +4.4%
Confidence
The entire story of this game is motivation. Spurs go into Sunday knowing the only way they get relegated is if they lose here and West Ham beat Leeds. A draw is mathematically enough for survival regardless of what happens at the London Stadium, due to Tottenham's vastly superior goal difference.
The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will be a nervous wreck on Sunday. These fans have spent most of the season watching their club flirt with relegation, a fate they haven't suffered in 48 years. But Spurs have shown some promise since De Zerbi took over from Igor Tudor, and the Italian only needs one point to avoid such a fate.
The Toffees have been inconsistent all season, winning one and losing three of their last five, and the visit to north London on a final-day Sunday when the home crowd will be deafening is not where a mid-table team typically finds something extra. The reverse fixture at Goodison in October finished 2-0 to Spurs, while the Head to Head is 14-6 in favour of Tottenham in Premier League meetings between these two sides.
The injury list complicates things. Spurs are without Kulusevski, Odobert, Kudus, Solanke, Simons, Romero and Davies, while James Maddison continues to have his minutes managed in his comeback from an ACL tear. Mathys Tel and Kolo Muani will carry the attacking load, with Gallagher tasked with driving from midfield and Van de Ven the platform at the back. It's a makeshift group but a pointed one. None of these players want to be the ones who let Spurs go down.
Spurs Metric (last 5 lg) Everton
1.40 xG For 1.10
1.60 xGA (lower = better) 1.50
3.8 Shots on Target 3.2
1.6 Goals Conceded 1.4
13.2 PPDA (lower = more press) 15.1
Per game averages. xG/xGA via fbref.com. PPDA via fbref.com. Shots on target and goals conceded last 5 league matches.
The metrics are surprisingly close, which is partly why this line sits at -110 rather than -150 or shorter. Spurs generate marginally more xG and concede marginally more too, which tells the story of a team that has been open and unreliable defensively all season but still capable of producing in attack.
The slight PPDA edge for Spurs reflects De Zerbi's pressing principles, which he's maintained even with the depleted squad. Everton's 1.50 xGA over the last five is reasonable, but they've been soft in away games against motivated home sides. They lost 3-1 at Sunderland last time out in a game that felt half-paced. A Spurs side playing in front of a desperate home crowd on the final day will not feel remotely like Sunderland.
The Spurs injury list for this game is staggering. Dominic Solanke (muscle), Christian Romero (knee), Xavi Simons (ACL), Dejan Kulusevski (knee), Wilson Odobert (ACL), Mohammed Kudus (thigh), and Ben Davies (ankle) are all out. Richarlison and Porro picked up knocks against Chelsea but should be able to feature here. Regardless of their league status, Spurs simply must do something about their tendency to purchase talented but unavailable players.
Van de Ven is the defensive anchor and will start. Kinsky will continue in goal. Kolo Muani and Mathys Tel are the attacking options, with Gallagher expected to drive from a central role and Palhinha providing the defensive cover beneath him. The XI De Zerbi puts out will be stretched and patched, but it contains players who understand exactly what's at stake.
Everton are relatively light on absentees by comparison. Jarrad Branthwaite and Jack Grealish are ruled out, while Idrissa Gana Gueye has a knock. Otherwise Moyes has a fairly full group available. Calvert-Lewin is expected to lead the line with Ndiaye and Lindstrom in support. Michael Kean deputises for Branthwaite alongside Tarkowski, wile Seamus Coleman should feature in some capacity in his final game for the club after 10 years of service. Merlin Röhl has made an impact of late and should start once more in service of Beto.
The Toffees have no particular incentive to set up aggressively, and Moyes will almost certainly name a structured, defensive-leaning side that looks to absorb and hit on the break rather than come out and impose themselves in north London.
Tottenham Hotspur
4-2-3-1 (predicted)
ST
Richarlison
LW
Kolo Muani
AM
Gallagher
RW
Tel
DM
Bentancur
DM
Palhinha
LB
Udogie
CB
Van de Ven
CB
Danso
RB
Porro
GK
Kinsky
Everton
4-2-3-1 (predicted)
ST
Beto
LM
Röhl
AM
Dewsbury-Hall
RM
Ndiaye
DM
Iroegbunam
CM
Garner
LB
Mykolenko
CB
Keane
CB
Tarkowski
RB
O'Brien
GK
Pickford
Based on confirmed XIs from GW37. Porro and Richarlison are listed as doubts ahead of this game — Dragusin and Gray are likely cover. Solanke, Simons, Romero, Odobert, Kudus, and Kulusevski remain out. Branthwaite is absent through injury, with Keane partnering Tarkowski. Gueye is a knock doubt; Grealish (foot fracture) is out for the season.
Market Odds Implied Model Edge
Spurs ML Best bet
1X2 market
-110 47.6% 52.0% +4.4%
Draw
1X2 market
+240 29.4% 26.0% -3.4%
Everton ML
Moneyline
+320 23.8% 22.0% -1.8%
Implied probability from American odds. Model probability from our in-house projection model. Edge = model minus implied. Odds via bet365.
Spurs ML at -110 is the play, returning a 4.4% model edge. The line feels right for the match on paper but wrong for the context. This is a survival game for one team and a dead rubber for the other, played in a 62,000-seat stadium where the home fans will be creating one of the loudest atmospheres of the English season. That factor alone closes a chunk of the quality gap created by the injury list.
The draw is overpriced at +240 given Spurs' aggressive approach under De Zerbi, and both sides' leaky defenses. The Everton ML at +320 has very marginal negative edge and no compelling narrative case beyond David Moyes wanting to save his old club. I'm tipping Spurs to win, and survive by the skin of their teeth.
Who is the favorite for Tottenham vs Everton?
Tottenham are favorites at -110, with the draw at +240 and Everton at +320. The market reflects Spurs' home advantage and survival motivation, balanced against an injury list of 11 players.
What is the best bet for Tottenham vs Everton?
Tottenham ML at -110. The model prices the win probability at 52% against 47.6% implied, a 4.4% edge. Spurs are fighting for Premier League survival in front of a desperate home crowd while Everton are a mid-table side with nothing at stake.
What is the predicted score for Tottenham vs Everton?
2-1 to Tottenham. Spurs have enough attacking quality through Mathys Tel and Kolo Muani to score, and the crowd factor will drive the performance. Everton are likely to get something on the counter, but the model expects Spurs to find the winning goal.
Can Tottenham still be relegated?
Yes, but only if they lose to Everton and West Ham beat Leeds simultaneously. A Tottenham draw is enough for survival because even if West Ham win and the points finish level, Spurs' goal difference of -10 comfortably beats West Ham's -22. A Spurs win eliminates any remaining danger entirely.
What time does Tottenham vs Everton kick off?
Kick-off is at 4:00 PM BST, 11:00 AM ET on Sunday May 24, alongside all other GW38 fixtures. The match is live on Sky Sports in the UK and on Peacock in the United States.
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