Czechia host Denmark in Prague for a place in the World Cup Finals on Tuesday. Czechia have not been at a World Cup since 2006 and needed a penalty shootout comeback against Ireland just to get here. Denmark arrive on the back of a commanding 4-0 win over North Macedonia and are the clear favorites, though their recent experience away in Scotland could cause some big match nerves.
Quick take: Denmark’s quality and semifinal form make them the pick, but Czechia’s home advantage and organization mean this is unlikely to be as straightforward as the Danes demolition of North Macedonia. Take the Under as this is likely to be a cagey affair.
| Match | Czechia vs Denmark |
|---|---|
| Date | 31st March 2026 |
| Best Bet | Under 2.5 |
| Confidence | 4/5 |
| Projected Score | Czechia 1 – Denmark 2 |
| Win Probability | Czechia 28%, Denmark 46%, Draw 26% |
Czechia vs Denmark Pick
- Pick: Under 2.5 Goals
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
Czechia vs Denmark Match Preview
Czechia have not appeared at a World Cup in 20 years and are desperate to end that wait. Under coach Miroslav Koubek, who took charge in December, they operate in a disciplined 3-4-2-1 with Tomas Soucek as the midfield anchor and Patrik Schick as the main attacking threat.
Schick has 25 international goals in 51 caps and scored a penalty in the shootout win over Ireland, where Czechia came back from 2-0 down to level in the 86th minute through Ladislav Krejci before winning 4-3 on penalties. Pavel Sulc, on loan at Lyon, provides creativity further forward. Key injuries include Adam Hlozek and Jakub Jemelka, while Vladimir Coufal is expected to start at right wing-back.
Denmark are the stronger side on paper and their 4-0 demolition of North Macedonia showed it, even if the scoreline flattered them somewhat given a goalless first half. Brian Riemer’s side use a 4-2-3-1 and have genuine quality throughout.. Rasmus Hojlund leads the attack and will be a constant threat to Czechia’s back three, while Eriksen and Damsgaard provide creativity and thrust in midfield.
Key absentees are significant though: Andreas Christensen, Rasmus Kristensen, Patrick Dorgu, and Jannik Vestergaard are all missing through injury, which weakens both defensive and creative options meaningfully.
Key Stats
- Denmark have won 2 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings; Czechia have won 0, with 3 draws.
- Czechia have not beaten Denmark in 7 games, their last win coming in the Euro 2004 quarter-finals.
- Denmark beat North Macedonia 4-0 in the semifinal; Czechia needed penalties to beat Ireland after trailing 2-0.
- Czechia have lost just 1 of their last 5 matches overall.
- Denmark have won 2 of their last 5 matches, with 2 draws and 1 defeat.
- Denmark are without 5 key players through injury including Christensen and Schmeichel.
- Schick has 25 international goals in 51 caps for Czechia.
- Isaksen scored twice in the semifinal and is Denmark’s top threat in the playoffs.
Betting Insights
- Czechia to Win: +289 | Implied probability: 26%
- Draw: +220 | Implied probability: 31%
- Denmark to Win: -101 | Implied probability: 50%
- Under 2.5 Goals: -132 | Implied probability: 57%
- Projected probability for Under 2.5 Goals: 65%
- Edge: approximately 8% in favor of Under 2.5 Goals
Denmark’s true win probability is projected at 46%, sitting just below the implied 50%, which makes this a modest edge rather than a strong one. The confidence rating reflects that.
Denmark’s injury list is substantial and Czechia at home with a packed crowd behind them are a difficult proposition. Denmark struggled in this very scenario at Hampden Park last year as the Scots confined them to the playoffs in a match where Denmark were favored.
The draw at +220 is tempting given the head-to-head trend of tight finishes between these sides, but Denmark’s semifinal form and attacking depth through Hojlund, Isaksen, and Eriksen tilt the balance enough to back them at close to even money.
Czechia vs Denmark Model Projection
- Score Projection: Czechia 1 – Denmark 1
- Win Probability: Czechia 28%, Denmark 46%, Draw 26%
The projected 1-1 scoreline reflects the most likely game flow in a match where both sides have reasons for caution. Czechia will sit compact, look to hit on the counter through Schick, and use Soucek and Chory to cause problems at set pieces. Denmark have the quality to create chances but their injury absences reduce the margin between these teams considerably. Under 2.5 goals holds up across multiple game scripts and is the clearest value on the board for this fixture.
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