Pitt vs West Virginia Pick & Prediction – 9/13/2025
The Pitt Panthers and West Virginia Mountaineers will face off in the return of the Backyard Brawl in college football on Saturday. This historic rivalry is known for its intensity and unpredictability and should not disappoint here either. Before kickoff between these rivals, you can find my analysis for this game and my Pitt vs West Virginia prediction below.
Our Pitt vs West Virginia Pick
- Pick: Pittsburgh -6.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Panthers vs West Virginia Mountaineers
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
- Quarterback Play: Pittsburgh’s Eli Holstein has been impressive, throwing for 304 yards and four touchdowns in the Panthers’ 45-17 victory over Central Michigan. He has thrown eight touchdowns through two games and this is his first real test of the 2025 season. West Virginia’s Nicco Marchiol is at a disadvantage in this quarterback matchup. He has just one touchdown pass through two weeks and could struggle to keep up with the explosive Pitt offense.
- Strength of Schedule: Neither of these teams have played a power conference team yet. West Virginia lost its last game against Ohio out of the MAC. Ohio is a good MAC team but that is still a troubling loss going into their first game against a power conference team.
- Home Field Advantage: West Virginia will look to capitalize on the energy of the home crowd in a rivalry game with the kind of history that this game has. But Pittsburgh’s recent form may prove challenging to them. Pitt has averaged 53 points per game through two weeks. And while they may struggle to score at a pace like that here, they are still going to be dangerous on offense.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Pittsburgh: Pitt is 2-0 against the spread this season and both of those games were at home.
- West Virginia: The Mountaineers are 1-1 against the spread and 0-1 against the spread at home going into this game.
- Head-to-Head: Pittsburgh leads the all-time series against West Virginia by a margin of 63-41-3. They have won two of the last three games against West Virginia.
Pitt vs West Virginia Model Projection
Score Projection: Pittsburgh 31 – West Virginia 24
Win Probability: Pittsburgh 65%, West Virginia 35%
Final Thoughts
Pittsburgh enters this rivalry game with momentum and a balanced offense led by quarterback Eli Holstein. West Virginia is at home here and the crowd at this game will be absolutely insane. But I don’t think that will be enough to help the Mountaineers win this game. I’m going to lay the points with Pitt in this contest in one of the games of the weekend in college football.
