The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will visit the Atlanta Falcons in an NFC South matchup on Sunday. This Week 1 game gives both of these teams a chance to set the tone for their season and get an early win over a division opponent. This game is also the first chance for Michael Penix Jr. to impress as a full-time starting quarterback for the Falcons. Before Sunday’s game, continue reading to get my Buccaneers vs Falcons prediction.
Our Buccaneers vs Falcons Pick
- Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
- Broadcast: FOX
Buccaneers vs Falcons Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers –2.5 | Bucs –135 / Falcons +114 | 47.5 |
Key Storylines
The Buccaneers aim to build on a strong second-half push in 2024 that saw them overtake the Falcons to win the NFC South. They’re seeking a fifth straight season-opening victory with a win this week. The Falcons hope to reverse a long playoff drought that stretches back to 2017. They have struggled in Week 1 historically. Atlanta is 3–7 in Week 1 games dating back to 2015.
Atlanta enters the season with key injuries on the offensive line. Right tackle Kaleb McGary is on injured reserve. That is a significant blow to their protection unit. The Bucs also carry several question marks from an injury standpoint. Standout offensive lineman Tristan Wirfs and wide receiver Chris Godwin passed physicals and were kept off the PUP list but there isn’t certainty surrounding how much they will play this week.
Quarterback Play
Baker Mayfield has been retained by Tampa Bay on a multi-year deal. He’ll rely on veteran Mike Evans and rookie Emeka Egbuka at wide receiver. He also has a dynamic running back in Bucky Irving to keep defenses honest this season.
Atlanta turns its offense over to second-year signal-caller Michael Penix Jr. Penix impressed late last season but is starting his first full campaign as a starter after Atlanta moved on from Kirk Cousins in the offseason. Penix will lean on Bijan Robinson and Drake London at the skill positions and fantasy football players everywhere will be wondering if Penix can help tight end Kyle Pitts finally live up to expectations.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Mike Evans | Over 71.5 Receiving Yards |
| Bijan Robinson | Over 81.5 Rushing Yards |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Under 1.5 Passing TDs |
| Baker Mayfield | Over 0.5 Interceptions |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Falcons went 2-0 against the Bucs last season.
- Each of Atlanta’s wins over Tampa last season came by six points or less.
- Tampa Bay went 10-8 against the spread last season.
- Atlanta was 6-10-1 against the spread in the 2024 season.
Buccaneers vs Falcons Model Projection
- Score Projection: Buccaneers 27 – Falcons 20
- Win Probability: Buccaneers 60%, Falcons 40%
Final Thoughts
Tampa Bay has the advantage when it comes to quarterback experience and they have been the class of the NFC South in recent seasons. The Falcons won against the Bucs twice last season but a quarterback change and offensive line injuries could make it tougher for them to beat Tampa this season. I’ll lay the points with the Bucs here and lean on the experience of Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay offense.
