Travis Kelce Projections, Prop Bets & Odds

Travis Kelce projections and prop bets for Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers on Dec 25, 2024

Travis Kelce Player Prop Bet: Receptions

Receptions Prop Bet Odds:

• Receptions 5.5 over: 115
• Receptions 5.5 under: -145

Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see 134.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.

The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Chiefs this year (a massive 61.4 per game on average).

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may suffer.

This week, Travis Kelce is expected by the model to find himself in the 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 8.3 targets.

Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet

Travis Kelce's possession skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 80.1% to 74.4%.

The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the 6th-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Projection For Travis Kelce Receptions Prop Bet

Travis Kelce is projected to have 5.5 Receptions in this weeks game.

Travis Kelce Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards

Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:

• Receiving Yards 45.5 over: -110
• Receiving Yards 45.5 under: -110

Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see 134.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.

The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Chiefs this year (a massive 61.4 per game on average).

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may suffer.

This week, Travis Kelce is expected by the model to find himself in the 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 8.3 targets.

Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet

Travis Kelce has put up substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (54.0) this year than he did last year (68.0).

Travis Kelce's possession skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 80.1% to 74.4%.

Travis Kelce's receiving efficiency has tailed off this year, accumulating just 6.62 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.71 figure last year.

Travis Kelce's talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this season, accumulating just 3.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.75 figure last season.

The Steelers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. tight ends this year, surrendering 6.84 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in the league.

Projection For Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop Bet

Travis Kelce is projected to have 54 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.