Patrick Mahomes projections and prop bets for Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills on Nov 17, 2024
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Interceptions
Interceptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Interceptions 0.5 over: -135
- Interceptions 0.5 under: 105
Trends Favoring The Over Interceptions Prop Bet
Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Chiefs have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
The model projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 35.6 passes in this game, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football.
In registering a staggering 1.13 interceptions per game this year, Patrick Mahomes rates among the bottom QBs in the NFL (12th percentile).
Trends Favoring The Under Interceptions Prop Bet
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to have only 124.6 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
Buffalo's defense profiles as the 9th-best in the league this year as it relates to forcing interceptions, compiling 0.97 per game.
The Buffalo cornerbacks grade out as the 4th-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 0.6 Interceptions in this weeks game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Carries
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
- Carries 3.5 over: -135
- Carries 3.5 under: 105
Trends Favoring The Over Carries Prop Bet
The Chiefs have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Buffalo's collection of DTs has been terrible this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in football. in football.
Trends Favoring The Under Carries Prop Bet
The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 5th-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 38.7% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to have only 124.6 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
Patrick Mahomes has been much less involved in his offense's rushing attack this season (9.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (15.6%).
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 2.8 Carries in this weeks game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Pass Attempts
Pass Attempts Prop Bet Odds:
- Pass Attempts 34.5 over: -125
- Pass Attempts 34.5 under: -105
Trends Favoring The Over Pass Attempts Prop Bet
Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Chiefs have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
The model projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 35.6 passes in this game, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Trends Favoring The Under Pass Attempts Prop Bet
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to have only 124.6 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 33.7 Pass Attempts in this weeks game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Rushing Yards 21.5 over: -110
- Rushing Yards 21.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Rushing Yards Prop Bet
The Chiefs have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
With an exceptional tally of 7.5 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (88th percentile), Patrick Mahomes ranks among the top rushing QBs in the NFL this year.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Buffalo's collection of DTs has been terrible this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in football. in football.
Trends Favoring The Under Rushing Yards Prop Bet
The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 5th-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 38.7% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to have only 124.6 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
Patrick Mahomes has been much less involved in his offense's rushing attack this season (9.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (15.6%).
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 19.1 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Passing Yards
Passing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Passing Yards 239.5 over: -127
- Passing Yards 239.5 under: -108
Trends Favoring The Over Passing Yards Prop Bet
Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Chiefs have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
The model projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 35.6 passes in this game, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football.
With an outstanding record of 255.0 adjusted passing yards per game (85th percentile), Patrick Mahomes stands as one of the leading QBs in the league this year.
Trends Favoring The Under Passing Yards Prop Bet
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to have only 124.6 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
The Buffalo cornerbacks grade out as the 4th-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 236.8 Passing Yards in this weeks game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Completions
Completions Prop Bet Odds:
- Completions 22.5 over: -120
- Completions 22.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Completions Prop Bet
Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Chiefs have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
The model projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 35.6 passes in this game, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Patrick Mahomes is positioned as one of the most on-target QBs in football this year with a remarkable 69.6% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 91st percentile.
Trends Favoring The Under Completions Prop Bet
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to have only 124.6 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
The Buffalo cornerbacks grade out as the 4th-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 22.1 Completions in this weeks game.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bet: Touchdown Passes
Touchdown Passes Prop Bet Odds:
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 over: 100
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 under: -130
Trends Favoring The Over Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 6th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (60.5% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Patrick Mahomes is positioned as one of the most on-target QBs in football this year with a remarkable 69.6% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 91st percentile.
Trends Favoring The Under Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to have only 124.6 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
The Buffalo cornerbacks grade out as the 4th-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection For Patrick Mahomes Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 1.4 Touchdown Passes in this weeks game.
