Jay Sanin on December 15, 2024
Nick Chubb projections and prop bets for Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns on Dec 15, 2024
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Browns, who are -4-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Browns to pass on 61.3% of their chances: the 6th-highest clip among all teams this week.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 141.1 plays on offense called: the highest number among all games this week.
The highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Browns this year (a whopping 62.8 per game on average).
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Browns O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
With a feeble 5.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (16th percentile) this year, Nick Chubb has been as one of the weakest pass-game RBs in the NFL.
Nick Chubb grades out as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among running backs, hauling in a mere 64.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 8th percentile.
The Chiefs defense has allowed the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 20.0) versus RBs this year.
Nick Chubb is projected to have 7.3 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Browns, who are -4-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Browns to pass on 61.3% of their chances: the 6th-highest clip among all teams this week.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 141.1 plays on offense called: the highest number among all games this week.
The highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Browns this year (a whopping 62.8 per game on average).
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Browns O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Nick Chubb is positioned as one of the worst pass-game running backs this year, averaging a lowly 0.7 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 14th percentile among running backs.
Nick Chubb grades out as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among running backs, hauling in a mere 64.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 8th percentile.
This year, the strong Chiefs defense has yielded a measly 80.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 9th-lowest rate in the league.
Nick Chubb is projected to have 1.1 Receptions in this weeks game.
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 141.1 plays on offense called: the highest number among all games this week.
The highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Browns this year (a whopping 62.8 per game on average).
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
In this week's game, Nick Chubb is anticipated by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.2 rush attempts.
After comprising 41.8% of his team's rushing play calls last season, Nick Chubb has been more involved in the ground game this season, currently accounting for 59.6%.
This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Browns, who are -4-point underdogs.
The model projects the Cleveland Browns as the 6th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 38.7% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Nick Chubb is projected to have 14.6 Carries in this weeks game.
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 141.1 plays on offense called: the highest number among all games this week.
The highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Browns this year (a whopping 62.8 per game on average).
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
In this week's game, Nick Chubb is anticipated by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.2 rush attempts.
After comprising 41.8% of his team's rushing play calls last season, Nick Chubb has been more involved in the ground game this season, currently accounting for 59.6%.
This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Browns, who are -4-point underdogs.
The model projects the Cleveland Browns as the 6th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 38.7% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Nick Chubb's 3.1 adjusted yards per carry this year shows a meaningful decline in his running proficiency over last year's 5.9 figure.
This year, the stout Kansas City Chiefs run defense has conceded a mere 88.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 3rd-best in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Nick Chubb is projected to have 57.7 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
