Jay Sanin on January 26, 2025
James Cook projections and prop bets for Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs on Jan 26, 2025
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 132.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Our trusted projections expect James Cook to total 2.8 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.4 plays per game.
The Chiefs pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (76.4%) vs. running backs this year (76.4%).
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Kansas City's collection of LBs has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.
James Cook is projected to have 1.9 Receptions in this weeks game.
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 132.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast James Cook to earn 14.6 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Among all RBs, James Cook ranks in the 85th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 52.1% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.
With an impressive total of 71.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (92nd percentile), James Cook rates as one of the top running backs in the league this year.
With a terrific total of 5.19 adjusted yards per carry (89th percentile), James Cook has been as one of the top RBs in football this year.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to run on 45.3% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Buffalo Bills have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.4 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense boasts the 6th-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, giving up just 4.23 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Kansas City's group of safeties has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 5th-best in the league.
James Cook is projected to have 65.3 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 132.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast James Cook to earn 14.6 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Among all RBs, James Cook ranks in the 85th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 52.1% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to run on 45.3% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Buffalo Bills have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.4 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Kansas City's group of safeties has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 5th-best in the league.
James Cook is projected to have 14.1 Carries in this weeks game.
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 132.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Our trusted projections expect James Cook to total 2.8 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
James Cook has put up a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among RBs. (That may not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).
The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.4 plays per game.
James Cook has put up many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (15.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).
James Cook's receiving efficiency has worsened this year, compiling a measly 6.87 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.58 mark last year.
The Chiefs defense has surrendered the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 19.0) versus RBs this year.
The Chiefs pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (76.4%) vs. running backs this year (76.4%).
James Cook is projected to have 14.9 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
