Jay Sanin on December 25, 2024
Hunter Henry projections and prop bets for Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots on Dec 28, 2024
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
This week's spread implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -4-point underdogs.
Hunter Henry has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (81.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (71.6%).
The model projects Hunter Henry to garner 6.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Hunter Henry has notched a staggering 47.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Hunter Henry's 47.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year marks a significant boost in his receiving skills over last year's 33.0 rate.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 55.2% of their chances: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the New England Patriots ranks as the worst in the league this year.
This year, the daunting Chargers defense has yielded a paltry 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-best in the league.
This year, the daunting Chargers defense has surrendered the 2nd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a measly 6.3 yards.
Hunter Henry is projected to have 42.3 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
