Baker Mayfield projections and prop bets for San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Nov 10, 2024
Baker Mayfield Player Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Rushing Yards 15.5 over: -110
- Rushing Yards 15.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Baker Mayfield has run for quite a few more yards per game (19.0) this season than he did last season (10.0).
Baker Mayfield's 6.17 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season shows a meaningful growth in his rushing talent over last season's 4.16 figure.
Baker Mayfield has been one of the top QBs in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 2.80 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 92nd percentile.
The 49ers safeties profile as the 31st-worst safety corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Trends Favoring The Under Rushing Yards Prop Bet
The Buccaneers are a 6-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buccaneers to run on 37.0% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected by the predictive model to run just 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 107.0 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
Projection For Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Baker Mayfield is projected to have 17 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
Baker Mayfield Player Prop Bet: Interceptions
Interceptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Interceptions 0.5 over: -152
- Interceptions 0.5 under: 117
Trends Favoring The Over Interceptions Prop Bet
The Buccaneers are a 6-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 63.0% of their downs: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect Baker Mayfield to attempt 36.5 passes in this game, on balance: the 5th-most out of all quarterbacks.
Baker Mayfield has tallied 1.05 interceptions per game this year, grading out in the 16th percentile when it comes to QBs.
Trends Favoring The Under Interceptions Prop Bet
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected by the predictive model to run just 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.
San Francisco's defense grades out as the 4th-best in football this year when it comes to inducing interceptions, averaging 1.27 per game.
The 49ers linebackers project as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection For Baker Mayfield Interceptions Prop Bet
Baker Mayfield is projected to have 0.5 Interceptions in this weeks game.
Baker Mayfield Player Prop Bet: Passing Yards
Passing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Passing Yards 243.5 over: -114
- Passing Yards 243.5 under: -114
Trends Favoring The Over Passing Yards Prop Bet
The Buccaneers are a 6-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 63.0% of their downs: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect Baker Mayfield to attempt 36.5 passes in this game, on balance: the 5th-most out of all quarterbacks.
Baker Mayfield has thrown for a lot more adjusted yards per game (280.0) this season than he did last season (231.0).
Baker Mayfield's passing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 63.6% to 71.6%.
Trends Favoring The Under Passing Yards Prop Bet
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected by the predictive model to run just 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.
This year, the daunting San Francisco 49ers defense has given up a feeble 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The 49ers linebackers project as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection For Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop Bet
Baker Mayfield is projected to have 236 Passing Yards in this weeks game.
Baker Mayfield Player Prop Bet: Carries
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
- Carries 3.5 over: -110
- Carries 3.5 under: -120
Trends Favoring The Over Carries Prop Bet
The 49ers safeties profile as the 31st-worst safety corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Trends Favoring The Under Carries Prop Bet
The Buccaneers are a 6-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buccaneers to run on 37.0% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected by the predictive model to run just 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.
Projection For Baker Mayfield Carries Prop Bet
Baker Mayfield is projected to have 3.3 Carries in this weeks game.
Baker Mayfield Player Prop Bet: Touchdown Passes
Touchdown Passes Prop Bet Odds:
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 over: -107
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 under: -122
Trends Favoring The Over Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
The Buccaneers are a 6-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 63.0% of their downs: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.
At the present time, the 6th-most pass-focused team in football near the end zone (60.7% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Buccaneers.
Our trusted projections expect Baker Mayfield to attempt 36.5 passes in this game, on balance: the 5th-most out of all quarterbacks.
Baker Mayfield's passing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 63.6% to 71.6%.
Trends Favoring The Under Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected by the predictive model to run just 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.
This year, the daunting San Francisco 49ers defense has given up a feeble 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The 49ers linebackers project as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection For Baker Mayfield Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Baker Mayfield is projected to have 1.5 Touchdown Passes in this weeks game.
