The first Monday Night Football game of the 2025 NFL season will be played by the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. These NFC North rivals finished nine games apart in the standings last season. Chicago will look to turn things around after a bad 2024 campaign and the Vikings will look to get back to the playoffs with a new starting quarterback. Before these rivals close out Week 1, continue reading to get my Vikings vs Bears prediction.
Our Vikings vs Bears Pick
- Pick: Chicago Bears Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears
- Date & Time: Monday, September 8, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
- Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: ABC/ESPN
Vikings vs Bears Odds
| Betting Line | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Vikings -1.5 |
| Moneyline | Vikings -125 / Bears +105 |
| Total | 44.5 |
Key Storylines
- Vikings’ Quarterback Situation: J.J. McCarthy takes the reins as the starting quarterback for the Vikings after missing his rookie season due to injury. He starts his pro career with a winnable game but will need to be careful with the football in a new environment here.
- Bears’ Coaching Change: Ben Johnson steps in as head coach for the Bears. He brings a new offensive philosophy that aims to revitalize the team’s attack after helping the Detroit Lions’ offense become one of the best in football.
- Caleb Williams Begins Year Two: Caleb Williams showed flashes of brilliance in his rookie season as the quarterback of the Chicago Bears. He starts his second season as the more experienced of the two quarterbacks in this Week 1 matchup. He has two new rookie weapons in tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden and his rapport with them will be interesting to monitor.
Quarterback Play
J.J. McCarthy’s debut as the Vikings’ starting quarterback is highly anticipated. McCarthy missed last year with a knee injury but is back to throw to one of the best groups of receivers in football. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen should be more than enough even with Jordan Addison out due to suspension. His ability to execute the offense and make plays under pressure will be tested on the road in his first start.
Caleb Williams did a very nice job of not throwing too many interceptions last season. Williams threw six picks in 17 games in his rookie season. The Bears could be a dangerous team if he can avoid interceptions effectively in this game and this season as a whole.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | Under 78.5 Receiving Yards |
| J.J. McCarthy | Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns |
| J.J. McCarthy | Over 0.5 Interceptions |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Last 5 Games: The Vikings have won three of their last five matchups against the Bears. Minnesota went 2-0 against the Bears last season and scored 30 points in both of those games.
- ATS Trends: The Bears went 8-7-2 against the spread last season. Minnesota was 11-6-1 ATS a season ago.
Vikings vs Bears Model Projection
- Score Projection: Bears 24 – Vikings 20
- Win Probability: Bears 55%, Vikings 45%
Final Thoughts
If I can get a home underdog in a division game against a rookie quarterback making his first career NFL start, I’m taking it almost every time. That is the case in this game, and I love the idea of betting the Bears here. The Vikings should be the better football team in the long run as McCarthy gets his feet wet in the pros. But there is value on the home dog here.
