Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons Pick & Prediction – 9/22/2024

Chiefs vs Falcons Betting Odds

Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

Their last head-to-head matchup was a low scoring slugfest. In Week 16 of 2020 the Chiefs won on the road beating the Falcons 17-14.

Atlanta's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #24 in football with a low 298 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #30 in the league with just 195 yards per game. This presents a decided disadvantage for Atlanta given that the Chiefs pass defense has thrived this year, allowing a mere 6.97 yards per target (good for #3-best in football). When it comes to their defense, the Falcons check in at #6 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 189 yards per game against Atlanta this year (#29 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #21 against them with 4.26 yards per ground attempt. This Falcons defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 111 yards per game (#3-best in the league). Atlanta's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 6.65 yards per target (#5-worst in the league).

Kansas City's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #3 in the league while allowing just 309 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #5-least yards per game: 195. The Chiefs have done the best job shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.25 yards per target (#4-best). Kansas City's best position group in coverage has been their cornerbacks, which rank #8 in the league in locking down route-runners. Kansas City's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive tackles, which check in as the #3-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. This represents a particular advantage for Kansas City given that the Falcons have struggled so much with their pass game this year, managing just 6.66 yards per target (#10-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the Chiefs have ranked #8 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 263 yards per game (#6 in football). On the ground they've ranked #13 with 4.11 yards per carry.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Chiefs 28.06 vs Atlanta Falcons 26.1

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