The Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams will face off in Week 1 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Houston comes into this game off a trip to the playoffs last season and will look to build on that trip this season. They take on a Rams team that won the NFC West and lost to the eventual champions in the postseason. Before these playoff teams face off to open their 2025 campaigns, keep reading to get my Texans vs Rams prediction.
Our Texans vs Rams Pick
- Pick: Los Angeles Rams -3
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Rams
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 7, 2025, 4:25 PM ET
- Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
- Broadcast: CBS
Texans vs Rams Odds
| Betting Market | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Rams -3 |
| Moneyline | Rams -155, Texans +130 |
| Total | 43.5 |
Key Storylines
Quarterback Play
Matthew Stafford’s health is a critical factor for the Rams. Stafford dealt with back issues during training camp and his performance will be closely monitored this week. Stafford is reportedly on track to start and is participating fully in practices without setbacks. His experience and leadership are invaluable as the Rams aim to establish a strong offensive rhythm early in the season even without Cooper Kupp.
C.J. Stroud enters his third season as Texans quarterback with confidence. Stroud has led the Texans to playoff appearances in each of his first two seasons. His connection with wide receiver Nico Collins will be on full display here with Tank Dell out injured.
Absences Impacting the Texans
The Texans face significant challenges due to injuries and other absences. Running back Joe Mixon contributed over 1,300 yards from scrimmage last season. He has been placed on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury List and will miss the first four games of the season. His absence leaves a void in the Texans’ backfield and veterans Nick Chubb and Dameon Pierce are expected to shoulder the load.
The Texans will also be without key defensive players. C.J. Gardner-Johnson is questionable and safety Jimmie Ward is out after being put on the Commissioner’s Exempt List. Those absences could impact their ability to contain the Rams’ offense effectively.
Rams’ Offensive Line Stability
The Rams’ offensive line received a boost with the return of left tackle Alaric Jackson. Jackson had been sidelined due to blood clots. His presence is important in protecting Stafford and establishing a strong running game. The offensive line’s performance will be pivotal in determining the Rams’ offensive success against the Texans’ defense.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | Passing Yards | Over 237.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | Passing Yards | Over 234.5 |
| Nick Chubb | Rushing Yards | Under 40.5 |
| Kyren Williams | Rushing Yards | Over 67.5 |
| Puka Nacua | Receiving Yards | Over 73.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Rams are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games.
- The total has gone under in four of the Rams’ last six games.
- The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Rams.
- This is the first meeting between these teams since 2021. The Rams won that game 38-22.
Texans vs Rams Model Projection
- Score Projection: Rams 24 – Texans 20
- Win Probability: Rams 56%, Texans 44%
Final Thoughts
The prevailing thought surrounding this game seems to be that the Texans will win and that Stafford is banged up. But I think that the Rams will get the job done at home in this contest. The Rams don’t have the kind of fan base that will take SoFi Stadium over and I think that Jared Verse and the Rams defense will get enough pressure on Stroud to force him into some key mistakes. I’ll lay the points with the Rams in what should be an entertaining game out West.
