The Green Bay Packers will visit the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in Week 4 of the NFL season. Both teams took losses in Week 3 of the season on the road and they will look to bounce back in Arlington in this contest. Here, I break down this matchup from a betting perspective and you can find my Packers vs Cowboys prediction below.
Our Packers vs Cowboys Pick
- Pick: Green Bay Packers -5.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 8:20 PM ET
- Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
- Broadcast: NBC
Packers vs Cowboys Odds
| Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Packers -5.5 |
| Moneyline | Packers -300, Cowboys +250 |
| Total | 47.5 |
Key Storylines
- Packers’ Defensive Strength: Green Bay boasts one of the league’s top defenses. They have limited opponents to an average of 14.7 points per game. Their ability to pressure the quarterback and create turnovers will be crucial against Dallas’ offense.
- CeeDee Lamb’s Injury: Cowboys’ star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb sustained a high-ankle sprain in Week 3 and is unlikely to play in this game. His absence significantly weakens Dallas’s receiving corps and Dak Prescott will have to find a way to get the Dallas offense going in spite of that fact.
- Micah Parsons Returns to Dallas: Packers’ linebacker Micah Parsons was traded to Green Bay from the Cowboys in the offseason. He returns to AT&T Stadium for the first time since that trade was made and the emotions of that return will make an already interesting game even more so.
Quarterback Play
- Jordan Love (Packers): Love has shown steady progress early in the season. He enters this game with a 68% completion rate, five touchdowns, and just one interception. He won’t have to worry about Parsons chasing him around as part of the Dallas defense any longer and Love will look to take advantage of that here.
- Dak Prescott (Cowboys): Dak Prescott has struggled with consistency, throwing three interceptions in the first three games. Without Lamb, he’ll face increased pressure to perform. He will also have to evade his former teammate, who will likely want to take him down over and over again to prove to Dallas that they should have kept him around.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Green Bay is 2-1 against the spread to open the season.
- Dallas is 1-2 against the spread early in the year.
- Green Bay is 0-1 on the road this year, having lost to the Cleveland Browns in Week 3.
- The Cowboys are 1-0 at home, escaping with a 40-37 overtime win over the New York Giants in Week 2.
Packers vs Cowboys Model Projection
- Score Projection: Packers 27 – Cowboys 20
- Win Probability: Packers 70%, Cowboys 30%
Final Thoughts
The Packers enter this game as the stronger team, with a superior defense and a more consistent offense. The potential absence of CeeDee Lamb further tilts the balance in Green Bay’s favor in this contest. I recommend betting on Green Bay to win and cover the spread as a favorite in this Sunday Night Football matchup between two iconic NFL franchises.
