The Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings will play in Week 11 of the NFL season on Sunday. The Bears (6-3) are tied for first place in the NFC North. They will try to help themselves try to grab sole possession of first place with a win over the Vikings (4-5) at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Here, I have given you my analysis of this NFC North matchup, including my Bears vs Vikings prediction.
Our Bears vs Vikings Pick
- Pick: Vikings -2.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 16, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
- The Bears have surged to a 6-3 record after stumbling early. Chicago has won two straight games and four of its last five. The Vikings have underperformed at 4-5 despite still being in division contention. But they have quarterback JJ McCarthy back from injury and will try to bounce back from a loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week.
- Minnesota has won nine of the last 10 games between these division rivals. But the Bears are improving with Caleb Williams at quarterback and will try to reverse that trend with a road win in this game.
- Chicago’s offense has shown improved balance this year, with its running game contributing and making life easier on Williams and the passing game. Minnesota was held to 19 points by the Ravens last week and will try to get more going with their passing game to open things up for the run.
Quarterback Play
Bears signal-caller Caleb Williams has shown significant improvement this year. He has thrown for over 2,100 yards in 2025 with 13 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. His late-game composure and ability to protect the football have made Chicago’s offense more trustworthy.
Vikings starter J.J. McCarthy has returned from injury but remains inconsistent. He is clearly still trying to find a rhythm early in his pro career and after being derailed by multiple injuries. But Justin Jefferson has just two touchdowns this year and has cleared 81 receiving yards only twice. The quarterback situation in Minnesota has made it hard for Jefferson to play up to his considerable talent level.
Betting Trends
- The Bears are 5-4 against the spread this season and 5-3-1 in over/unders for their games.
- The Vikings are 4-5 ATS and have seen 7 of their 9 games go over the total.
- The Vikings won the first meeting between these teams this season in Week 1 in Chicago.
Bears vs Vikings Model Projection
Score Projection: Chicago Bears 24 – Minnesota Vikings 27
Win Probability: Bears 45%, Vikings 55%
Final Thoughts
I think that the Vikings are better than their record at this point in time. Minnesota finally has its starting quarterback on the field and they are playing a defense that isn’t elite for the first time since McCarthy’s return. I’m going to lay the points with Minnesota here, as they should get back to .500 with a win over a team they have owned in recent years.
