Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings Pick – 9/14/2025
The Kirk Cousins Bowl is set for Sunday Night Football in Week 2 of the NFL season as the Minnesota Vikings host the Atlanta Falcons. Both of these teams have had Cousins as their starting quarterback in recent seasons. But Cousins will watch this game from the Falcons’ bench, as both teams are set to start quarterbacks they drafted last year. Continue reading to find out which young quarterback I expect to win this game in my Falcons vs Vikings prediction for Sunday.
Our Falcons vs Vikings Pick
- Pick: Under 45.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 14, 2025, 8:20 PM ET
- Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: NBC
Key Storylines
- The Falcons lost a heartbreaker to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their first game of the season. Michael Penix Jr. made some great plays late in that game to give Atlanta a chance. But a missed Younghoe Koo field goal prevented Atlanta from tying the game and sending it to overtime.
- The Vikings come into this game on a short prep week. They drew the Monday Night Football assignment in Week 1 and will try to overcome that in this Sunday Night Football matchup.
- The running game of the Bucs was an area of concern in their Week 1 win. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield led the team in rushing with 39 yards. The backs for the Bucs have to contribute more on the ground for them to reach their full potential offensively.
- This is the second straight road game for the Bucs to start the season. It is their second game in a row taking place indoors. Minnesota is playing in its home opener here.
Quarterback Play
Michael Penix Jr. had 298 passing yards in his first week as a full-season QB1 with veteran Kirk Cousins in reserve. Penix also made a couple of impressive plays with his legs in the fourth quarter against the Buccaneers, including a late touchdown run that gave the Falcons a lead that they would surrender in the final minutes.
JJ McCarthy is set to start under center for the Vikings here. This will be the first home start of McCarthy’s tenure as the starting quarterback in Minnesota. McCarthy’s mobility and mechanics will be under the microscope early this season after he suffered a season-ending knee injury before the start of last season.
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Falcons are 0-1 against the spread after their loss in Week 1.
- Atlanta’s first game of the year went under the total at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
- The Vikings lead the all-time series against the Falcons 22-12.
Falcons vs Vikings Model Projection
Score Projection: Vikings 23 – Falcons 20
Win Probability: Vikings 62%, Falcons 38%
Final Thoughts
The play of the two young quarterbacks in this game will likely determine its outcome more than any other factor. If Penix can build on his promising start in Week 1, I think the Falcons could win on the road. If McCarthy is healthy and precise, the Vikings could get the job done. No matter who wins the game, I think the game stays under the total, as both defenses should cause problems for the young signal caller on the other side.
