The Yankees roll into Citizens Bank Park on Friday, July 24 for the first of three games against the Phillies, and both clubs arrive with plenty on the line as August approaches. New York (57-45) is looking to build off an inconsistent start to the second half, while Philadelphia (56-47) hopes home cooking and a deep rotation can get it back on track. With Jesús Luzardo on the mound for the Phillies and Cam Schlittler starting for the Yankees, bettors have an interesting pitching matchup to sort through, and we break it all down right here.
Our Yankees vs Phillies Prediction
- Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-136)
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Yankees vs Phillies Model Projection
- Score Projection: Yankees 3 – Phillies 4
- Win Probability: Yankees 39%, Phillies 61%
Luzardo has been one of the more effective left-handers in the National League this season, sitting at 9-4 with a 3.43 ERA and 143 strikeouts across 115.1 innings, and he gets a Yankees lineup that is missing two of its biggest bats. Schlittler has also had a very good year, entering this game with a 9-6 record and an impressive 2.20 ERA in 123.0 innings of work.
Ben Rice has quietly been New York’s best hitter, slugging .590 with a team-high 30 home runs, and Cody Bellinger provides a steady presence in the middle of the order. Still, without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, this lineup lacks its top-end power, and that shortage lines up poorly against a Phillies rotation and bullpen that has trimmed its ERA over the last 10 games. Philadelphia’s lineup, led by Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, has more thump throughout, and the home run rates for both of those hitters suggest the Phillies should have the edge in a game that could turn on one or two swings.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies
- Date & Time: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 6:45 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Cam Schlittler vs Jesús Luzardo
- Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- Broadcast: Apple TV
Yankees vs Phillies Same Game Parlay
- Leg 1: Phillies Moneyline (-136)
- Leg 2: Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+215)
- Leg 3: Under 8 total runs (-117)
Total Parlay Odds: +800
Schwarber has gone deep 33 times this season and is one of the game’s more dangerous power threats, while the under makes sense given Luzardo’s strikeout rate and a Phillies bullpen that has settled in of late. Add in the moneyline on the home team, and this parlay covers three distinct paths to a Philadelphia win without needing a blowout.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Head-to-Head (2026 regular season): First meeting of the year between these two clubs.
- Yankees away record: 31-22
- Phillies home record: 27-25
- Yankees over/under record: 44-54-4
- Phillies over/under record: 43-55-5
Stat Comparison
| Category | New York Yankees | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Batting Average | .236 | .236 |
| OPS | .735 | .705 |
| wOBA | .321 | .308 |
| wRC+ | 105 | 91 |
| Team ERA | 3.38 | 4.27 |
| xFIP | 3.87 | 3.58 |
The difference between ERA and xFIP is worth noting going into this contest. The Yankees have a much better team ERA this year, but Philadelphia’s xFIP is superior, which is a better barometer of actual pitching ability without factoring luck into the equation. That should be a difference maker here, as the Phillies should be able to shut down the New York bats when it counts.
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