If you were to head on over to FanDuel Sportsbook to find odds for UFC 264, you wouldn’t have to look very hard. That is because it is a top option under the ‘Popular’ heading.
It only makes sense. Everybody is fired up for the rematch between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier. The first fight happened an eternity ago, but the second fight is fresh in everybody’s mind. The ending to the trilogy will come on Saturday July 10 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. It seems only fitting that the third fight in this iconic matchup will be the first event in Sin City to be held with a full house since before the pandemic really took hold.
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The Poirier vs. McGregor fight is one of 13 on Saturday’s fight card. We’ll look at the best of the main card matchups and scan the card for some best bets in this preview.
UFC 264 Picks – Poirier (-130) vs. McGregor (+110)
The big story as the days peeled off the calendar in advance of Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 3 was that the betting action was coming in on Poirier. At time of writing, the winner of the fight back in January was priced as a -130 favorite. That could certainly change by the time the bell dings to signify the start of the fight, but bettors are speaking loudly about this one.
You can see why. Poirier has been the more consistent fighter, while McGregor has had run-ins with the law, with the UFC law in Dana White, and has made a lot of headlines that have nothing to do with the Octagon. Poirier has pretty steadily been around the sport and has probably taken his training a lot more seriously.
On the other hand, when Poirier beat McGregor in January, it was basically McGregor’s first fight since October 6, 2018 when he lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov. No offense to Donald Cerrone, but the Cowboy is more of a show pony now. He gets prospects over, to borrow a wrestling expression, and remains a fan favorite. Nothing against his contributions to the sport, which are immense, but that was a joke of a fight for McGregor.
It was 371 days later that McGregor and Poirier fought and it ended 2:32 into the second round with Poirier via knockout. McGregor is said to be much more focused and engaged this time around.
Can McGregor return to being that dangerous, hard-hitting fighter with the great wrestling and grappling that we saw in the past? If he does, then a lot of people will be surprised based on the betting action we’ve seen to this point.
In that UFC 257 fight, Poirier and McGregor landed a similar number of strikes, but Poirier landed a lot more significant strikes. He also really abused the legs of McGregor, a wise move against a fighter whose conditioning was in question. It seemed to take a toll in the second round, when Poirier really took control of the fight.
That makes for a tough handicap here. McGregor should be in tip-top shape with a little under six months to get ready. Poirier may simply be the better fighter right now and that is what the market-shaping money says.
Pick: Dustin Poirier
UFC 264 Odds – Burns (+135) vs. Thompson (-155)
Gilbert Burns won six in a row before losing to Kamaru Usman in his last fight. Burns was getting soundly beaten in the fight prior to the third-round knockout, but Usman is one of the best fighters that this division has even seen. Is he being punished too much for that loss or is there something else in play here with the big favorite role granted to Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson?
The 38-year-old Thompson has fought more impressive competition, including his two most recent wins over Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque. The 34-year-old Burns most recently beat Tyron Woodley, who is now basically doing celebrity boxing with Jake Paul after flaming out of UFC.
Burns definitely has some questions to answer. He is a high-volume fighter for the most part, fighting three times in 2019 and twice in 2020 before taking some time for the big battle with Usman. Thompson is at the point where he picks his spots a little bit more often.
While many are probably viewing this as a big step up for Burns, it could very well be one for Thompson as well. He’s a long way from his match against Jorge Masvidal 3.5 years ago. His fight against Neal was his first in 13 months. He’s 38 years old now. You really have to wonder if the striking of Burns and the aggressive, forward-pushing style is a lot for Wonderboy at this stage.
I’d look more at the underdog here.
Pick: Gilbert Burns
UFC 264 Best Bets
The two main event fights are easily the best ones on this fight card. Let’s bounce around and see the other bouts that look to have some good betting value.
Jessica Eye (+155) vs. Jennifer Maia (-180)
Do we have a good underdog possibility here between Jessica Eye and Jennifer Maia? Maia took a lot of abuse in her first against Valentina Shevchenko a few months ago. We all remember what Shevchenko did to Eye in their fight.
It is fair to wonder if there is a hangover for Maia, who is the better fighter, but probably not to the degree that this line implies. At +155, Eye seems more than worthy of a bet as an experienced fighter that still has a good gas tank for long fights.
Pick: Jessica Eye
Trevin Giles (+100) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (-120)
Another strong underdog possibility here with Trevin Giles against Dricus Du Plessis. The 28-year-old Giles seems a lot more comfortable in the UFC now, as he’s won three in a row following losses to Gerald Meerschaert and Zak Cummings back in 2019. Giles is a guy that beat UFC talent like Ran Spann, Ike Villanueva, and Brendan Allen on his path to the top MMA promotion.
Dricus Du Plessis was impressive in his win over Marcus Perez, but the KSW champ hasn’t fought a lot of household names or guys with the athleticism or versatility of Giles on his way to UFC. Giles has at least fought more fighters deserving of being at this level. Du Plessis just faced his first in Perez, a fighter that has now lost four of his last five fights.