Alden Coria vs. Stewart Nicoll is one of the more one-sided betting matchups on the UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman card on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Coria enters as a massive favorite, as the odds indicate that bettors expect Coria to continue his rise in the flyweight division, while Nicoll faces a major test against a fighter who has shown improvement with each UFC appearance. Coria owns a 12-3 professional record and has built a reputation as a well-rounded prospect, while Nicoll enters with an 8-3 record and needs a major performance to pull off one of the bigger upsets on the card.
Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll Prediction
- Pick: Alden Coria by KO/TKO in Round 2
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
- Win Probability: Alden Coria 86%, Stewart Nicoll 14%
Coria is the clear favorite because he brings advantages in striking consistency, overall skill level, and recent UFC form. He has earned consecutive victories inside the Octagon and most recently showed he can handle dangerous opponents while maintaining a disciplined approach. His win over Alessandro Costa stands out because Costa has developed into a dangerous finisher, making Coria’s ability to control the fight particularly impressive.
Nicoll still has enough offensive ability to make this matchup interesting. He has finishing experience in both striking and grappling, but his recent UFC results have raised questions about whether he can consistently compete against higher-level opposition. Coria’s ability to manage distance and avoid extended defensive exchanges gives him a strong path to victory.
Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll Parlay
- Alden Coria moneyline
- Alden Coria to win in Rounds 1-2
- Parlay odds: -110
The first leg is based on the significant talent gap between the fighters. Coria has shown he can win against capable opponents, while Nicoll has struggled to put together consistent UFC performances. The second leg targets the most likely time of victory because Coria’s striking pressure creates opportunities for a stoppage. The primary risk with this parlay is that Nicoll survives and forces a decision. However, the matchup favors Coria’s ability to create damage over the first 2 rounds, making a finish-based wager a more attractive option than laying heavy odds on the favorite alone.
Tale of the Tape
| Fighter | Age | Height | Reach | Stance | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alden Coria | 28 | 5’8″ | 67″ | Orthodox | 12-3-0 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 31 | 5’5″ | 65.5″ | Orthodox | 8-3-0 |
Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll Preview
Coria has quickly become a fighter worth watching in the flyweight division because of his ability to combine striking and grappling without becoming predictable. He is comfortable working behind combinations, using movement to create openings, and mixing in takedowns when opponents begin focusing heavily on his hands.
His statistical track record supports his favorite status. Coria has demonstrated strong offensive output while limiting damage absorbed, giving him a favorable matchup against an opponent who needs to create chaos to win. His biggest advantage is his ability to dictate where the fight takes place.
Nicoll enters this fight with a dangerous skill set but limited margin for error. He has finishing ability and cannot be ignored in a division where one clean shot or submission attempt can change the outcome instantly. However, he will likely need to find a way to disrupt Coria’s rhythm early.
The biggest matchup concern for Nicoll is his ability to handle Coria’s pressure. If Nicoll is forced into extended striking exchanges, Coria’s accuracy and defensive awareness should create opportunities. Nicoll’s best route is likely through grappling exchanges, where he can slow the fight and look for submission openings.
For bettors, the challenge is finding value with such a heavy favorite. Coria appears to have the better overall skill set and a clear advantage in current form, but his moneyline price leaves little room for error. A finish prop provides a stronger risk-to-reward ratio.
My prediction is Coria to win by second-round KO/TKO. Expect Nicoll to have moments early while trying to make the fight uncomfortable, but Coria’s technical advantages should become more noticeable as the fight progresses. If Coria avoids unnecessary risks, he should extend his UFC winning streak with another strong performance.
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