Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito Prediction & Fight Preview - 9/19/2026
Updated September 19, 2026
Updated September 19, 2026
Giga Chikadze and Joanderson Brito meet in a featherweight bout at UFC 331 on Saturday, September 19, 2026, at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. The fight pairs Chikadze’s long-range kickboxing with Brito’s pressure, wrestling, and submission game. Chikadze has dropped 3 straight, most recently suffering a second-round knockout loss to Kevin Vallejos in December 2025, while Brito has won 2 in a row and submitted Jordan Leavitt in the first round in June.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Brito’s path to the ground is a serious threat, even if his raw striking numbers aren't great on paper, while Chikadze’s recent knockout loss may be drawing too much attention to a striking finish instead of a submission.”
Value In the Submission Market
The 43¢ submission price creates a much more workable position than Brito’s 79¢ straight-win price. Brito deserves to be favored, but paying close to 80¢ requires him to win at a very high rate. The submission market separates his strongest finishing route from the full range of possible outcomes. Brito has recorded 8 submission victories in his professional career, and 3 of his 7 UFC wins have come by submission. His most recent appearance ended with a first-round choke of Leavitt.
A Submission Fits The Fight's Style
My 47% projection is driven by how Brito can attack Chikadze rather than simply by Brito’s recent results. Chikadze wants open space, long kicking exchanges, and enough time to establish rhythm. Brito can deny those conditions by pushing him back, forcing clinches, and mixing takedowns with heavy punches. A 4% edge is meaningful without pretending that a submission is close to certain.
Recommended Prediction:
Fight to End By Submission
Current Market Price:
43¢
Model Win Probability:
47%
Market-Implied Probability:
43%
Model Edge:
4%
Buy Up To:
45¢
Model Trade Confidence:
66/100
Fighter | Age | Height | Reach | Stance | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Giga Chikadze | 38 | 6'0" | 74" | Orthodox | 15-6 |
Joanderson Brito | 31 | 5'8" | 72" | Orthodox | 19-5-1 |
Chikadze enters UFC 331 needing to stop the longest losing run of his UFC career. Arnold Allen defeated him by unanimous decision in July 2024, David Onama followed with another unanimous decision in April 2025, and Vallejos stopped him at 1:29 of the second round in December. Before this skid, Chikadze had built much of his reputation on wins over fighters such as Edson Barboza, Cub Swanson, and Alex Caceres.
Brito has recovered from consecutive decision losses to William Gomis and Pat Sabatini. He defeated Isaac Thomson by unanimous decision in December 2025 before returning in June and submitting Leavitt at 4:19 of the opening round. That result pushed his professional record to 19-5-1.
At distance, Chikadze remains the cleaner and more proven technician. He lands 3.75 significant strikes per minute, with 42% accuracy and 59% significant-strike defense. He is also 4 inches taller than Brito and owns a 2-inch reach advantage. Those measurements are important when making UFC predictions on this fight, because Chikadze does much of his best work behind kicks to the body and head, using movement to make opponents cover ground before they can return fire.
Brito lands fewer significant strikes at 2.43 per minute, though his 51% accuracy is higher. His 44% striking defense is an area Chikadze can exploit if the fight stays at kicking range for long stretches. Brito cannot afford to spend 15 minutes trying to outpoint Chikadze from the outside. His striking works better as a way to close distance and create physical exchanges.
This is where the matchup changes. Brito averages 3.38 takedowns per 15 minutes with 67% accuracy, compared with Chikadze’s 0.18 takedowns per 15 minutes. Brito also averages 1.1 submission attempts over the same span. Chikadze owns 65% takedown defense, which is respectable, but he has generally been at his best against opponents willing to spend significant time striking with him.
Brito does not need to dominate every minute on the mat. Even failed takedowns can make Chikadze fight from the fence, shorten the striking range, and discourage him from throwing kicks as freely. Brito’s combination of front-headlock attacks, back takes, and pressure makes each scramble dangerous.
Chikadze’s clearest route is to survive Brito’s early pressure, stay off the fence, and force a kickboxing match as Brito’s pace settles. His body kicks could become increasingly useful if Brito has to chase him through the second and third rounds. There is also a real possibility that Chikadze’s accuracy punishes reckless entries.
Brito, however, has more ways to force the type of fight he wants. He can throw hard enough to make Chikadze respect his hands, then change levels or attack from the clinch. His 16 finishes across 19 professional victories also show that he does not need a long stretch of control to turn one good position into the end of the fight.
The straight winner market makes Brito expensive at 79¢. The submission market is a better fit for the matchup. Chikadze still has enough technical striking skill and range management to make a Brito victory far from automatic, but if Brito does establish control, the choke threat should be present immediately. At 43¢, fight won by submission is my preferred prediction, with a 47% model probability and a 4% projected edge.