UFC 326 is headlined by a high-profile lightweight showdown on Saturday, as Max Holloway meets Charles Oliveira in a long-awaited rematch at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. More than 10 years have passed since their first meeting, when Holloway won after Oliveira suffered a neck injury in the opening round. Both fighters have since built legendary careers and now collide again with the BMF title on the line. Before Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira II, I break down the fight and make my prediction.
Our Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira II Pick
Pick:
Confidence: 4 out of 5
Tale of the Tape
| Fighter | Age | Reach | Stance | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 34 | 69 in | Orthodox | 27-8 |
| Charles Oliveira | 36 | 74 in | Orthodox | 36-11 |
Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira Preview
This matchup pits two former champions with very different approaches inside the cage against one another. Holloway built his reputation through relentless striking output and incredible durability. He lands around 7.2 significant strikes per minute, one of the highest rates in UFC history. Over long fights, he overwhelms opponents with pace, accuracy, and cardio that rarely fades across five rounds.
Holloway enters UFC 326 in strong form. The Hawaiian star holds a 27-8 record and has won 4 of his last 5 fights. His recent victories include a unanimous decision over Dustin Poirier and a highlight knockout of Justin Gaethje to capture the BMF title. Those wins reinforced the idea that Holloway’s striking volume remains difficult for even elite fighters to handle.
His biggest defensive strength in this matchup is takedown defense. Holloway stops about 83% of attempts, which could neutralize Oliveira’s preferred path to victory. If he keeps the fight standing, Holloway should be able to dictate distance with combinations, body shots, and constant pressure.
Oliveira brings a completely different skill set. The Brazilian veteran holds the UFC record for most finishes with 21 and most submissions with 17. With 22 career submission victories overall, Oliveira remains one of the most dangerous grapplers in the sport. His game revolves around forcing scrambles and capitalizing on the moment an opponent makes a mistake.
At 36 years old, Oliveira still competes at a high level. His latest victory came in October 2025 when he submitted Mateusz Gamrot with a face crank. Even in fights where he gets hurt on the feet, Oliveira often turns chaotic exchanges into submission opportunities. That unpredictability makes him a live underdog against any striker.
The question is simple entering this fight: can Oliveira bring the fight to the mat before Holloway builds a striking advantage? If Oliveira finds a submission position, the fight could end quickly. If Holloway avoids those moments, his pace across five rounds becomes a major factor.
Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira Prediction
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