Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 4/17/2025

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On April 17, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Washington Nationals at PNC Park in what marks the fourth game of their ongoing series. Both teams are struggling early in the season, with the Pirates holding a record of 7-12 and the Nationals at 7-11, placing them in the lower tier of the National League standings. The Pirates' offense has been particularly disappointing, ranking 30th in both team batting average and home runs, signaling significant struggles at the plate.

In their previous matchup, the Pirates got a win over the Nationals, and both teams will be eager to pick up a win today. Pittsburgh is projected to start Andrew Heaney, a left-handed pitcher whose ERA of 3.00 suggests he has performed well despite a personal 0-1 record. His projection of 5.2 innings pitched with 2.6 earned runs allowed could serve as a stabilizing force for the struggling Pirates.

On the other side, Trevor Williams will take the mound for Washington. Despite having a 1-1 record, his ERA of 7.36 raises concerns about his effectiveness. However, his 3.82 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky so far this season, hinting at potential improvement. Williams faces a Pirates lineup that has the 5th highest strikeout rate in MLB, which could play to his advantage as a low-strikeout pitcher.

While the Nationals' offense is ranked a respectable 15th in MLB, their ability to capitalize on Heaney's weaknesses will be crucial. The projections suggest a low-scoring affair, with a Game Total currently set at just 7.5 runs. Bettors should take note of the Pirates' implied team total of 3.88 runs, which might be a bit optimistic given their current form.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams's 88.5-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 1st percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Josh Bell tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Heaney.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #26 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Joey Bart has big-time HR ability (79th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Trevor Williams is a pitch-to-contact type (17th percentile K%) — great news for Bart.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

In today's game, Joey Bart is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.1% rate (81st percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 36% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 37% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.69, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.67

• Date: April 17, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates

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