Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 5/1/2025

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On May 1, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park in what is the third game of their series. The Phillies, with a record of 17-13, are enjoying a solid season and currently sit in a competitive position within the National League East. In contrast, the Nationals are struggling at 13-18, having had a rough start to their campaign.

In their previous matchup, the Phillies' strong performance continued as they secured a win against the Nationals, further solidifying their place in the standings. Taijuan Walker is projected to take the mound for Philadelphia. Despite being ranked as the #288 best starting pitcher in MLB, he boasts an excellent ERA of 2.78 this season. However, his 4.37 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and may regress. Walker has pitched five games thus far, holding a 1-2 record, and he is projected to average 5.4 innings today, allowing 3.0 earned runs.

On the other side, Brad Lord will be starting for Washington. His record stands at 0-3 with an ERA of 4.67, which is average. However, his projections indicate he may be due for improvement, as his FIP suggests he has been unlucky. While both pitchers are right-handed and face offenses with varied strengths, Lord's high walk rate (11.5 BB%) could be a significant disadvantage against a patient Phillies lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB in walks.

The Phillies' offense ranks 13th overall and is particularly adept at getting on base, which could play a crucial role in today's matchup. With an implied team total of 5.30 runs, they are favored to score heavily. Meanwhile, the Nationals' offense, although average overall, has players who can capitalize on any mistakes from Walker. The Game Total is set at a high 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for a lively contest.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Bradley Lord's high usage rate of his fastball (75.9% since the start of last season) is likely hurting his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

James Wood's maximum exit velocity (an advanced stat to study power) has been 116.3 mph since the start of last season, checking in at the 97th percentile.

• If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he's never hit the ball hard, it's a sign of a lack of power.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Washington Nationals with a 21.2% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Out of all starting pitchers, Taijuan Walker's fastball spin rate of 2097.5 rpm grades out in the 16th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Typically, bats like Johan Rojas who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Brad Lord.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in their last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 90% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.99, Philadelphia Phillies 4.89

• Date: May 1, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brad Lord - Nationals
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies

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