Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick For 4/16/2024

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Overview

• Date: April 16, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
  • Ricky Vanasco - Dodgers
• Run Line: Nationals 1.5 -110, Dodgers -1.5 -110
• Money Line: Nationals 190, Dodgers -220
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 33%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 67%

Projected Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 27.48%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 72.52%

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup scheduled for April 16, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Washington Nationals at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, with a record of 11-8 this season, are having a great season so far, while the Nationals have struggled with a 7-9 record, making it a challenging season for them.

The Dodgers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ricky Vanasco, who has shown promise but is expected to pitch an average of 3.6 innings today. Despite his limited innings, Vanasco has been effective, allowing only 1.6 earned runs on average. However, he struggles with giving up hits and walks, allowing an average of 3.2 hits and 1.3 walks per game.

On the other side, the Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin. Corbin has had a rough start to the season, with an 0-2 record and an ERA of 8.44. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Corbin's control has been a strength, with a low walk rate of 5.3%.

In their last game, the Dodgers faced the Nationals and suffered a 6-4 loss. Despite being the favorite with a closing Moneyline price of -420, the Dodgers couldn't secure the win. The Nationals, who were massive underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +340, capitalized on their opportunities to secure the victory.

The Dodgers have an impressive offense, ranking as the 4th best in MLB this season. They excel in home runs, ranking 2nd in the league with 186 home runs. However, their stolen base ranking of 20th is a weak point. The Nationals, in contrast, have struggled offensively, ranking 20th overall. They have performed well in batting average, ranking 6th, but their home run ranking of 29th is a significant weakness.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Dodgers have the 6th best bullpen in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Nationals rank at the bottom, coming in at 30th. This could be a significant advantage for the Dodgers, as a strong bullpen can help secure a win.

Mookie Betts has been the Dodgers' best hitter this season, displaying impressive stats across 19 games. He has recorded 20 runs, 16 RBIs, 6 home runs, and 3 stolen bases, with a batting average of .347 and an OPS of 1.115. For the Nationals, CJ Abrams has been their standout hitter, contributing 9 runs, 10 RBIs, 4 home runs, and 3 stolen bases in 13 games, with a batting average of .296 and an OPS of 1.004.

Considering the projections, the Dodgers have a high win probability of 73%, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. In comparison, the Nationals are projected to have a win probability of 27%. The current odds also favor the Dodgers, with a moneyline of -220, giving them an implied win probability of 67%.

With their powerful offense and strong bullpen, the Dodgers have the advantage in this matchup. However, baseball is a game of surprises, and anything can happen on any given day. The Nationals will look to defy the odds and secure a victory against the favored Dodgers.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Throwing 92.6 adjusted pitches per outing since the start of last season on average, Patrick Corbin places in the 79th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen ranks as the worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to score the most runs (6.62 on average) of the day.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 84 of their last 149 games (+21.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 134 games (+18.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Patrick Corbin has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 32 games (+5.15 Units / 13% ROI)

Nationals vs Dodgers Prediction: Nationals 4.19 - Dodgers 6.62

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