Toronto Blue Jays VS New York Yankees Betting Pick & Preview – 04/06/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Overview

• Date: April 6, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees
• Run Line: Blue Jays 1.5 -205, Yankees -1.5 175
• Money Line: Blue Jays -110, Yankees -110
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 50%
• New York Yankees - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 42.8%
• New York Yankees - 57.2%

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Game Preview & Prediction

In an American League East matchup, the New York Yankees will be hosting the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium on April 6, 2024. The Yankees, with a record of 6-2, are having a great season so far, while the Blue Jays hold a 4-4 record, which can be considered average.

The Yankees are projected to start right-handed pitcher Clarke Schmidt, who has shown promise as the #80 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In his one start this year, Schmidt has yet to record a win or loss, but his ERA of 5.06 suggests room for improvement. His 3.14 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Schmidt is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs.

Opposing Schmidt will be Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays' projected right-handed pitcher. Gausman is considered an elite pitcher, ranking as the #12 best starting pitcher in MLB. With an impressive ERA of 2.08, Gausman has been a force on the mound. However, his 8.85 xERA suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward. Gausman is projected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs.

In their last game, the Yankees faced the Blue Jays and suffered a 3-0 loss. Despite being favored with a closing Moneyline price of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%, the Yankees were unable to secure a victory. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, were considered underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%. They proved their doubters wrong with a solid performance.

The Yankees' offense ranks as the #10 best in MLB this season, showcasing their talent and potential. However, their team batting average ranks as the second worst in the league at #29. On the other side, the Blue Jays' offense ranks as the #15 best in MLB, with a strong team batting average ranking of #5.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Yankees are projected to have a win probability of 57% in this game, making them the favorites. The Blue Jays, with a projected win probability of 43%, are considered the underdogs.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this game is expected to be average in terms of scoring. The Yankees have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the Blue Jays have the same average implied team total.

Based on the projections, the Yankees are expected to score 4.10 runs on average, while the Blue Jays are projected to score 3.76 runs on average. THE BAT X suggests that the Yankees have a 7% higher win probability than what the betting market suggests, indicating potential value in betting on the Yankees.

As the game approaches, fans and bettors can look forward to an intriguing matchup between these two teams. Will the Yankees continue their strong season, or will the Blue Jays upset the odds? Only time will tell, but this game promises to be an exciting contest between two talented squads.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the 6th-best batter in baseball when assessing his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Clarke Schmidt is projected to throw 85 pitches in today's matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 12th-least on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Anthony Volpe has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

In today's game, Juan Soto is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.2% rate (94th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays 3.76 vs New York Yankees 4.1

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