Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets Prediction – 4/4/2025

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on April 4, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum early in the season. The Mets, currently sitting at 3-3, are coming off a lackluster start but still have time to turn things around. In contrast, the Blue Jays are riding high with a 5-2 record, showcasing a strong start to the year, bolstered by a recent impressive performance.

On the mound, Tylor Megill is projected to start for the Mets. Megill, who ranks as the 89th best starting pitcher in MLB, has an excellent ERA of 1.80 this season, although his peripheral stats suggest he may not maintain this level of performance. He’s projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 4.5 batters on average. However, he has struggled with allowing hits and walks, which could be a concern against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 17th overall in MLB offense.

Kevin Gausman, the projected starter for the Blue Jays, comes in with a solid 3.00 ERA and an above-average ranking of 86th among pitchers. Gausman is expected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs while striking out 6.0 batters on average. Despite his respectable performance, his projections indicate he might face challenges with hit and walk totals.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, betting markets reflect a close contest, favoring the Mets with a moneyline of -130. Given the Mets’ potential for improvement and Megill’s current form, this matchup could be more competitive than the odds suggest.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the plate, Anthony Santander will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side against Tylor Megill in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Toronto Blue Jays (17.1 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-heavy lineup of all teams today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Given that flyball batters hold a significant advantage over groundball pitchers, Tylor Megill and his 34.6% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough position today facing 1 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 50 games at home (+16.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+4.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+7.60 Units / 16% ROI)

• Date: April 4, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Tylor Megill - Mets

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