Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction – 5/6/2025

The Los Angeles Angels will host the Toronto Blue Jays on May 6, 2025, in a matchup that holds significance as both teams seek to turn around disappointing seasons. The Angels currently sit with a record of 13-20, while the Blue Jays are slightly better at 16-18. Neither team is contending for a playoff spot at this stage, which makes every game crucial in their pursuit of improvement.

In their last outings, both teams faced tough losses, with the Angels falling 13-1 and the Blue Jays narrowly losing 5-4. This game marks the first of the season between these two teams, and the stakes are high for the struggling Angels, especially after their recent blowout defeat.

Tyler Anderson, projected to start for the Angels, has been a mixed bag this season. Despite a commendable ERA of 2.67, he ranks as the 203rd best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics. His peripherals suggest he might have benefitted from some good fortune, as his xFIP sits at 5.09. He'll be facing a Blue Jays lineup that has struggled to produce power, ranking last in MLB with just 23 home runs this season.

On the other hand, Jose Urena will take the mound for the Blue Jays, making his first start of the year. Urena's ERA is a troubling 15.00, but projections indicate he could rebound against an Angels offense that ranks 27th in MLB, particularly in batting average. However, Urena's low strikeout rate could work in his favor as the Angels strike out frequently, ranking 3rd in that category.

With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs, and both teams boasting high implied totals of 4.50 runs, bettors should keep an eye on how the matchups unfold. The Angels, despite their recent struggles, may have an edge if Anderson can find his groove against a Blue Jays offense lacking punch.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Urena will hold the platoon advantage over 7 opposing hitters today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

George Springer has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.9-mph average to last year's 87.4-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The Los Angeles Angels outfield defense profiles as the strongest among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Against the weak defense of Toronto's worst infield of all teams on the slate today), Luis Rengifo has a very favorable matchup given his extreme groundball tendencies.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Angels bats collectively grade out 5th- in the league for power this year when using their 10.4% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.45 Units / 56% ROI)
• George Springer has hit the RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+1.90 Units / 16% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.79, Los Angeles Angels 4.4

• Date: May 6, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Urena - Blue Jays
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels

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