Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Pick – 5/8/2025

In a clash between struggling teams, the Los Angeles Angels host the Toronto Blue Jays on May 8, 2025, at Angel Stadium. Both teams are currently underperforming, with the Angels sitting at 15-20 and the Blue Jays at 16-20. In their last matchup on May 7, the Angels managed a narrow victory, edging out the Blue Jays 5-4.

The Angels are projected to send Jose Soriano to the mound. Soriano has had a rocky season, with a 2-4 record and a 3.83 ERA. While his recent performance showed promise, including a stellar outing on May 2 where he went 6 innings without allowing an earned run, his overall stats indicate he struggles at times. He has a low strikeout rate (18.5 K%) and will be facing a Blue Jays lineup that has been among the least strikeout-prone in MLB.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will counter with Chris Bassitt, who has been solid this season, sporting a 2-2 record and an excellent 2.95 ERA. Despite giving up 3 earned runs in his last start, Bassitt has been effective overall. His ability to limit walks (4.2 BB%) could play a crucial role against an Angels offense that ranks 1st in the league for least walks drawn.

Both offenses have struggled this season—ranked 26th (Angels) and 24th (Blue Jays) in MLB—but the Angels possess surprising power, ranking 5th in home runs despite their overall offensive woes. This matchup appears close, with betting markets reflecting a slight edge for the Blue Jays, who have an implied team total of 4.45 runs compared to the Angels' 4.05. The projections suggest the Angels might outperform expectations, especially given their recent victory and the potential for Soriano to deliver a strong performance against a lower-strikeout lineup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt's 90.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 2-mph decline from last year's 92.6-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

George Springer has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.3-mph average to last year's 93.2-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. projects as the 6th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jose Soriano is an extreme groundball pitcher (55.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #7 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Extreme groundball bats like Taylor Ward usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Bassitt.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Angels have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.20 Units / 61% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 7 away games (+7.35 Units / 85% ROI)
• Jose Soriano has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.40 Units / 51% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.31, Los Angeles Angels 4.3

• Date: May 8, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Jose Soriano - Angels

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