Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 4/7/2025

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On April 7, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park for the first game of their series, coming off contrasting results from their last outings. The Red Sox are riding high after a decisive 18-7 victory against the St. Louis Cardinals, while the Blue Jays are looking to bounce back from a 2-1 loss to the New York Mets. With both teams in the American League East, this matchup carries significance as they aim to improve their early-season standings, with the Red Sox at 6-4 and the Blue Jays at 5-5.

Boston's Richard Fitts, projected to start, has struggled this season, holding a 0-1 record with an average ERA of 4.50 over one start. However, his 3.73 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky thus far, suggesting potential for improvement. In contrast, Toronto's Easton Lucas boasts an impressive 1-0 record and a perfect ERA of 0.00, although his 4.20 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune in his previous outing.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 17th in MLB, with their best hitter boasting a .483 batting average and a 1.491 OPS, indicating strong performance despite a lack of power. The Blue Jays' offense, on the other hand, ranks 21st and has also struggled with power. This matchup presents a clear advantage for the Red Sox, particularly given their projected team total of 4.71 runs compared to the Blue Jays' 4.29.

Betting markets see this as a close game, with the Red Sox favored at -130. Given their current form and the matchup against a pitcher with control issues, Boston may have the upper hand in this AL East clash.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Will Wagner is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Boston (#1-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays batters jointly grade out 25th- in the league for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 7.3% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Because flyball batters hold a big advantage over groundball pitchers, Richard Fitts and his 35.8% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in this outing being matched up with 1 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.15 Units / 39% ROI)
• Kristian Campbell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.95 Units / 72% ROI)

• Date: April 7, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Easton Lucas - Blue Jays
  • Richard Fitts - Red Sox

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