Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Game 2 Prediction – 7/29/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Game 2 Details

• Date: July 29, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

Blue Jays vs Orioles Game 2 Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Game 2 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Game 2 Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays square off on July 29, 2024, in the second game of a doubleheader at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles, sitting at 62-43, have been a force in the American League East, while the Blue Jays, with a 49-56 record, are having a below-average season.

Cade Povich, a left-hander, will start for the Orioles. With a 6.27 ERA and a 1-4 record over seven starts, Povich has struggled this season. However, his 5.73 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and might see improvements. Povich faces a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 22nd in MLB in offense and has shown little power, sitting 27th in home runs. This matchup could favor Povich, who is a high-flyball pitcher, against a team that struggles to hit the long ball.

On the other side, right-hander Bowden Francis gets the nod for Toronto. Francis has a 5.82 ERA and a 3-2 record, but his 4.60 xFIP indicates he's been unlucky as well. However, he faces a potent Orioles offense that ranks 1st in home runs and 3rd overall according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. This matchup could spell trouble for Francis, as Baltimore's power hitters could capitalize on his flyball tendencies.

Offensively, Baltimore has been led by Gunnar Henderson, who boasts a .283 batting average, 28 home runs, and an impressive .931 OPS. Over the last week, Cedric Mullins has been hot, hitting .333 with a 1.179 OPS. For the Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been their standout, hitting .301 with 19 home runs and a .869 OPS. Guerrero has been especially hot over the past week, batting .474 with a 1.560 OPS.

Baltimore is favored with a moneyline of -160, giving them an implied win probability of 59%. Given their powerful offense and the struggles of Bowden Francis, the Orioles have a good chance to secure another victory in this doubleheader.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Baltimore Orioles have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Bowden Francis today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Justin Turner's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 86.6-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 82.9-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.5% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Anthony Santander is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Toronto (#3-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 54 games (+10.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 31 games (+17.30 Units / 50% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Game 2 Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.94 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.27

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.