Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Prediction For 6/24/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: June 24, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays are set to kick off a series on June 24, 2024, at Fenway Park. This American League East matchup features two teams with contrasting seasons thus far. The Red Sox, with a 42-36 record, are having an above-average season, while the Blue Jays, sitting at 35-42, are struggling.

The Red Sox will send Tanner Houck to the mound. Houck, ranked as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X, has been excellent this year with a 2.14 ERA and a 7-5 record over 15 starts. However, his 2.92 xFIP suggests that he may have been a bit lucky and could regress slightly. Houck's high groundball rate (55%) will be key against a Blue Jays lineup that lacks power, ranking 27th in team home runs.

Chris Bassitt will start for the Blue Jays. Bassitt, the 50th best starting pitcher, has posted a solid 3.52 ERA and a 6-6 record in his 15 starts. Yet, his 4.14 SIERA indicates he too might be due for some regression. Bassitt's control could be an issue against a potent Red Sox offense that ranks 5th in MLB. The Red Sox hitters, led by Jarren Duran and the red-hot Tyler O'Neill, who has hit .333 with three home runs over the last week, will look to capitalize on Bassitt's vulnerabilities.

The Red Sox are slight favorites with a moneyline of -140, reflecting an implied win probability of 56%. THE BAT X is even more optimistic, projecting a 59% win probability for Boston. The Red Sox's offense, ranking 6th in batting average and 4th in stolen bases, should have the upper hand against a Blue Jays bullpen that ranks 24th.

In their last outings, the Red Sox secured a 7-4 victory over the Reds, while the Blue Jays fell short in a 6-5 loss to the Guardians. With Boston's superior offense and Houck's strong season, the Red Sox are well-positioned to take the first game of this series.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Tanner Houck has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 5.0 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Rafael Devers's batting average talent is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Wong, Tyler O'Neill, Wilyer Abreu).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games (+6.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 72 games (+12.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Kevin Kiermaier has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.22 vs Boston Red Sox 4.94

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