Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 4/13/2025

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners will host the Texas Rangers in the third game of their series on April 13, 2025. Following a dominant 9-2 victory over the Rangers the previous day, the Mariners are looking to build momentum as they continue to seek improvement on their lackluster 7-8 record this season. In contrast, the Rangers enter the matchup with a solid 9-6 record, showcasing their strong start to the campaign.

Logan Gilbert is projected to take the mound for the Mariners, coming off a commendable performance where he pitched 6 innings with just 1 earned run allowed, 7 strikeouts, and only 1 hit against his previous opponents. With an excellent ERA of 2.55 and ranking as the 22nd best starting pitcher in baseball, Gilbert is expected to pitch 6.2 innings today while allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs. However, he faces a Rangers offense that, despite a poor overall ranking, has shown power with the 9th most home runs in MLB.

Nathan Eovaldi will counter for the Rangers, aiming to improve upon his 2.29 ERA. His latest outing saw him allow 3 earned runs over 5 innings, which highlights the need for him to tighten up if the Rangers are to capitalize on their offensive potential. Eovaldi's tendency for ground balls (60% GB rate) could be challenged by the Mariners’ powerful lineup, which has already hit 18 home runs this season.

With the Mariners' projected moneyline set at -130 and a low Game Total of 6.5 runs, the odds suggest a closely contested affair. Given the recent performance and strong pitching matchup, the Mariners have a chance to build on their previous win and capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathan Eovaldi's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (70% vs. 62.7% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Josh Smith is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Texas's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the worst in baseball: #22 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Among all starting pitchers, Logan Gilbert's fastball spin rate of 2047.4 rpm ranks in the 5th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Randy Arozarena has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 100.5-mph average to last year's 94.2-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jorge Polanco pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.4% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 85 games at home (+2.95 Units / 3% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 15 games (+4.90 Units / 27% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 3.44, Seattle Mariners 3.56

• Date: April 13, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

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