The Milwaukee Brewers visit the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night for the opening game of a 4-game series between 2 of the National League’s strongest teams. Milwaukee enters at 74-47, while Los Angeles sits at 73-48, making this an appealing matchup with very little separating the clubs in the standings. The Dodgers have won 4 of their last 5 games, including a 5-4 extra-inning victory over Kansas City on Wednesday, while Milwaukee is coming off three consecutive losses to San Diego. The first meeting between these teams this season saw Los Angeles take 2 of 3 games in Milwaukee in May, although the Brewers won the opener 5-1.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5 runs
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Model Projection
- Score Projection: Milwaukee Brewers 3 – Los Angeles Dodgers 4
- Win Probability: Milwaukee Brewers 44%, Los Angeles Dodgers 56%
Our model gives Los Angeles a slight edge because of the home-field advantage, a stronger overall offensive lineup and the Dodgers’ recent run of victories. Los Angeles is averaging roughly 5 runs per game this season with a .768 OPS, compared with Milwaukee’s 4.89 runs per game and .731 OPS. The difference is meaningful, but not large enough to make the Dodgers attractive at a moneyline price near -150. Milwaukee has also been excellent away from home, with a 33-25 road record.
The stronger betting angle is the total. Shane Drohan has put together a solid season for Milwaukee, carrying a 3.87 ERA, 1.247 WHIP and 9.00 strikeouts per 9 innings. Roki Sasaki has been less consistent for Los Angeles, posting a 4.54 ERA and 1.276 WHIP, but his 9.09 strikeouts per 9 innings give him plenty of swing-and-miss ability. With the market sitting at 8.5 runs, our projection lands just below the number, and both teams have shown a tendency toward lower-scoring results in recent games.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 7:10 PM Pacific Time
- Starting Pitchers: Shane Drohan for Milwaukee, Roki Sasaki for Los Angeles
- Stadium: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Pitching Matchup
Drohan gives Milwaukee a steady left-handed option against a Los Angeles lineup that has plenty of right-handed power. He enters Thursday with a 6-4 record, 3.87 ERA, 1.247 WHIP and 9.00 K/9. He has also limited the damage reasonably well over his recent work, giving the Brewers a chance to keep the Dodgers from building an early lead. Milwaukee’s bullpen becomes increasingly important if Drohan exits after 5 or 6 innings, particularly against a Dodgers lineup that can turn a close game quickly late.
Sasaki brings considerably more strikeout ability but has had a bumpier season. His 5-5 record, 4.54 ERA and 1.276 WHIP leave room for concern, especially against a disciplined Milwaukee lineup. He has allowed more home runs than the Dodgers would prefer, with his season line showing 1.80 homers allowed per 9 innings. Still, his strikeout rate can limit sustained rallies, and the Dodgers have the advantage of pitching at home.
The key offensive names for Milwaukee include Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio and Jake Bauers. Turang is hitting .268 with a .360 on-base percentage and 16 home runs, while Chourio is at .275 with a .473 slugging percentage and 17 homers. Bauers has supplied 21 home runs and a .499 slugging percentage. For Los Angeles, Shohei Ohtani leads the projected lineup with a .292 average, .393 on-base percentage, and 27 home runs. Freddie Freeman is hitting .306 with a .380 on-base percentage, while Andy Pages has 19 home runs and a .454 slugging percentage.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Milwaukee is 74-47 straight up this season.
- Los Angeles is 73-48 straight up this season.
- Milwaukee is 33-25 on the road.
- Los Angeles is 36-23 at home.
- Milwaukee is 62-59 against the run line this season.
- Los Angeles is 50-71 against the run line this season.
- Milwaukee is 51-67-3 on totals this season.
- Los Angeles is 56-65 on totals this season.
The main reason to stay away from the Dodgers moneyline is price. Los Angeles deserves to be favored, particularly with Sasaki starting at home and a lineup featuring Ohtani, Freeman and Pages, but a price around -150 demands a relatively high win rate to justify the wager. Milwaukee’s strong road record and balanced offense make the Brewers capable of keeping this game within a run even in a loss.
That makes the under the more attractive position. Our projected 4-3 final gives a modest cushion below 8.5, so this is not a high-confidence total play. Still, the combination of Drohan’s respectable run prevention, Sasaki’s strikeout upside and both clubs’ overall under records points to a game that is more likely to remain in the 6-to-8 run range than turn into an offensive shootout. A 4-3 Dodgers victory is our model’s result, with the under providing the best betting value of the primary markets.
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