Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays Prediction For 7/26/2024

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: July 26, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On July 26, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Texas Rangers in an American League matchup at Rogers Centre. Both teams are having underwhelming seasons, with the Blue Jays sitting at 46-56 and the Rangers slightly better at 51-52. Despite the lackluster records, the game promises to be closely contested according to betting markets, with the Blue Jays' moneyline set at -130 and the Rangers' at +110.

Yusei Kikuchi will take the mound for Toronto, bringing with him a 4-9 record and a 4.54 ERA. However, his 3.32 xFIP, as per the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, suggests he's been unlucky and is likely to perform better moving forward. Kikuchi has averaged 5.2 innings per start and projects to allow 2.4 earned runs with 5.6 strikeouts. While his walk rate and hits allowed are concerns, his ranking as the 89th best starting pitcher in MLB indicates he is above average.

On the other side, Andrew Heaney will start for Texas, sporting a 4-10 record and a 3.60 ERA. Although his ERA is solid, his 4.18 xFIP suggests some luck may have played a role, hinting that he might regress. Heaney's projections aren't as favorable, with an expectation to pitch just 4.8 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs. His high flyball rate could be advantageous against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 27th in MLB in home runs, providing a potential edge.

Offensively, the Blue Jays have struggled, ranking 22nd in overall offense and 27th in stolen bases. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a bright spot, hitting .429 with 4 home runs and 7 RBIs over the last week. Conversely, the Rangers' offense is slightly better, ranking 20th overall and 18th in batting average. Robbie Grossman has been a standout recently, boasting a .444 average and a 1.222 OPS over his last 4 games.

Bullpen depth could play a crucial role in this matchup. The Blue Jays' bullpen ranks 17th, while the Rangers boast the 7th best relief corps, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This disparity could tilt the game in favor of Texas if it turns into a battle of the bullpens.

With both teams looking to turn their seasons around, this series opener is set up to be a competitive encounter. The projections and betting odds indicate a close game, slightly favoring the Blue Jays. Given Kikuchi's underlying numbers and recent luck, coupled with home-field advantage, Toronto might have the slight edge they need to start the series on a positive note.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Andrew Heaney is projected to throw 85 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Josh Smith has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 10.7% rate last season has fallen to 3.4% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Josh Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Yusei Kikuchi has gone to his slider 9.7% less often this year (16.3%) than he did last year (26%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Daulton Varsho has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Texas Rangers only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 20.5% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 33 games (+15.15 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 96 games (+15.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• George Springer has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 33 games (+7.05 Units / 20% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.54 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.6

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