Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins Pick For 6/1/2024

Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 1, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated interleague matchup, the Miami Marlins will host the Texas Rangers at LoanDepot Park on June 1, 2024. The Marlins, with a record of 21-37, are having a terrible season, while the Rangers, with a record of 27-30, are having a below-average season.

The Marlins are projected to start left-handed pitcher Ryan Weathers, who has started 11 games this season. Weathers has a win-loss record of 3-4 and an impressive ERA of 3.16. However, his 4.07 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could perform worse going forward. On average, Weathers is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allow 2.8 earned runs, strike out 4.6 batters, allow 5.5 hits, and walk 2.0 batters.

On the other side, the Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Michael Lorenzen, who has started 8 games this season. Lorenzen has a win-loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 3.35. His 4.55 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky this season and could regress in future performances. Lorenzen is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allow 2.7 earned runs, strike out 4.5 batters, allow 5.7 hits, and walk 1.7 batters on average.

The Marlins offense ranks as the 29th best in MLB this season, but they have the 3rd best team batting average. However, their low ranking in home runs (28th) and stolen bases (25th) suggests a lack of power and speed. The Rangers offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 16th best in MLB, with the 2nd best team batting average and the 5th most home runs. However, they also have a low ranking in stolen bases (25th).

With the Marlins' struggling offense and the Rangers' powerful lineup, the key matchup to watch will be Ryan Weathers, a high-groundball pitcher, against the Rangers' home run-hitting ability. If Weathers can keep the ball on the ground, he may neutralize the Rangers' power. On the other hand, Michael Lorenzen's control issues may not be fully exploited by the impatient Marlins offense, giving him an advantage in this matchup.

In terms of betting odds, the Marlins have a moneyline of +105, indicating an implied win probability of 47%. The Rangers have a moneyline of -125, suggesting an implied win probability of 53%. Both the projections and the betting markets anticipate a close game.

Based on the current odds, the Marlins have an average implied team total of 3.86 runs, while the Rangers have an average implied team total of 4.14 runs. THE BAT X projects the Marlins to score 4.34 runs on average in this game, while the Rangers are projected to score 4.87 runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

In his last GS, Michael Lorenzen was on point and allowed 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Andrew Knizner's quickness has declined this year. His 25.77 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.06 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.4%) and will be challenged by MLB's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Ryan Weathers has averaged 92.9 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, grading out in the 78th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Despite posting a .207 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Tim Anderson has been unlucky given the .083 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .290.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Miami Marlins have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games (+12.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• Leody Taveras has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 away games (+13.60 Units / 113% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.85 vs Miami Marlins 4.68

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