Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction & Picks 6/21/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: June 21, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates

Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays at PNC Park on June 21, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of underwhelming seasons. The Pirates, sitting at 36-38, are having an average year, while the Rays, at 36-39, are performing below expectations. This Interleague matchup will feature right-handers Luis Ortiz for the Pirates and Ryan Pepiot for the Rays.

Ortiz, who has a solid 2.51 ERA, has been fortunate this season according to his peripherals. His 4.80 xFIP suggests he's been luckier than his ERA indicates, making it likely that his performance could regress. Ortiz's projection for today's game is less than stellar, with an average of 4.8 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, and just 3.7 strikeouts. However, his low strikeout rate could play well against a Rays lineup that strikes out frequently, ranking 6th in MLB for most strikeouts.

Pepiot, on the other hand, has a 4.57 ERA but a much more favorable 3.61 xFIP, indicating he's been a bit unlucky and might be due for better outings. The projections have him averaging 5.0 innings, 2.3 earned runs, and 5.4 strikeouts today. His high strikeout rate could exploit the Pirates' offense, which ranks 4th in MLB for most strikeouts.

Offensively, both teams struggle. The Pirates rank 28th in overall offensive power, while the Rays aren't much better at 24th. The Pirates' best hitter over the last week has been Bryan Reynolds, who boasts a .375 batting average and a 1.173 OPS over his last six games. For the Rays, Randy Arozarena has been their standout, hitting .368 with a 1.328 OPS and adding three stolen bases over the last week.

Bullpen-wise, both teams are fairly average, with the Pirates ranked 14th and the Rays 15th in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This matchup could very well come down to which bullpen can hold the line better in the later innings.

Given the pitching matchups and the offensive struggles of both teams, this game could hinge on a few key at-bats and defensive plays. While the Pirates' Ortiz has been lucky, the Rays' Pepiot seems poised for a bounce-back performance. This could give the Rays a slight edge in what promises to be a closely contested game.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot projects to record an average of 15.1 outs in today's game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Isaac Paredes has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .362 rate is a good deal higher than his .311 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Siri, Ben Rortvedt, Josh Lowe).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Luis Ortiz's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (54.3% vs. 47.2% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Connor Joe is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 8.4% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates ranks them as the #8 team in the majors this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 60 games (+16.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 61 games (+18.50 Units / 26% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.98 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.37

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