Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction – 5/4/2025

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On May 4, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Tampa Bay Rays in what promises to be an exciting American League East matchup at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees currently hold a 19-14 record, enjoying a solid season, while the Rays sit at 15-18, struggling to find their rhythm.

The pitching matchup features the Yankees' Will Warren against the Rays' Taj Bradley. Warren, who is projected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, has had a rocky start to the year with a 1-1 record and a poor ERA of 5.63. However, his xFIP of 3.76 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, and there is potential for future improvement. Meanwhile, Bradley, with a better ranking as the 82nd best starter in MLB, has a record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.58, which is more average.

At the plate, the Yankees boast the best offense in MLB, leading in home runs and ranking 2nd in batting average. Aaron Judge has been one of the best hitters in all of baseball to start the year, hitting for both average and power. In contrast, the Rays' offense is ranked 19th, struggling to generate power as they rank 23rd in home runs.

With the Yankees favored at -180 on the moneyline, the projections indicate they should score around 5.10 runs, while the Rays are projected to score an average of 3.90 runs. Given the stark contrast in offensive firepower and the recent form of both teams, the Yankees are positioned to take another step toward solidifying their hold on the division.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley's curveball usage has increased by 5.4% from last season to this one (9% to 14.4%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Tampa Bay Rays hitters collectively rank 21st- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 7.8% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Ben Rice has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last year's 90-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's game, Aaron Judge is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39% rate (89th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.52 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.30 Units / 48% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.13, New York Yankees 4.91

• Date: May 4, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Will Warren - Yankees

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