Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Pick – 5/3/2025

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees will host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 3, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting American League East matchup. The Yankees enter this game with a solid 19-13 record, showcasing a powerful offense that ranks 1st in MLB in both team batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Rays are struggling with a 14-18 record and an offense that ranks 16th overall, indicating a tough season thus far.

In their last meeting, the Yankees emerged victorious, further solidifying their position as one of the top teams. Clarke Schmidt is projected to start for New York, despite having a rough season with a 0-1 record and a 5.52 ERA. However, his 4.82 xFIP suggests he may be due for a turnaround, and he projects to pitch an average of 5.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 5 batters. His matchup against Zack Littell, who is 1-5 this season with a 5.03 ERA, could tilt in Schmidt's favor, especially considering Littell's low strikeout rate and high flyball percentage.

The Yankees' offense, which has been performing exceptionally well, faces a Rays pitching staff that has shown vulnerabilities. Littell's inability to generate strikeouts could be problematic against a Yankees lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts but also has the potential for explosive power, illustrated by their 54 home runs this season.

With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs and the Yankees favored with a moneyline of -185, the projections indicate they could capitalize on their offensive strengths to secure another win against the Rays, who will need to find their rhythm quickly to stay competitive.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Over his previous 3 games started, Zack Littell has generated a sizeable rise in his fastball spin rate: from 1974 rpm over the whole season to 2047 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Kameron Misner has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .383 figure is a fair amount higher than his .287 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Tampa Bay Rays hitters jointly grade out 21st- in baseball for power this year when using their 7.8% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Clarke Schmidt will give up an average of 2.39 earned runs in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

In today's matchup, Aaron Judge is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.9% rate (88th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.15, New York Yankees 5.3

• Date: May 3, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees

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