Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/4/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: July 4, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Rays
  • Alec Marsh - Royals

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays gear up for the third game of their series on July 4, 2024, the Royals find themselves in a slightly better position in the standings. Currently, Kansas City holds a 48-40 record, showcasing an above-average season, while the Rays sit at 43-43, reflecting a more middle-of-the-road performance.

The Royals will send Alec Marsh to the mound, who has been somewhat fortunate this season. Despite his 6-5 record and a respectable 4.19 ERA, Marsh's 4.91 xERA suggests he may regress. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Marsh to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, 5.2 hits, and 1.7 walks—indicating a rough outing might be in store. Marsh's advantage could be his ability to limit walks, but his overall performance has been inconsistent.

On the other side, the Rays will counter with Zach Eflin, a more reliable arm. Eflin's 4-5 record and 3.92 ERA are solid, and his 3.30 xERA suggests he's been unlucky and might improve. Projections have Eflin pitching 5.6 innings and allowing 2.8 earned runs. However, he faces a Royals offense that ranks 3rd in strikeouts least in MLB, potentially neutralizing his low strikeout rate.

Offensively, Kansas City holds a slight edge. With the 15th best offense overall, they also rank 14th in team batting average and 16th in home runs. Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot, hitting .364 with a 1.076 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Rays' offense ranks 21st overall and 27th in home runs, though they excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th.

Betting markets see this as a close contest, with the Royals holding a +110 moneyline and an implied win probability of 46%. While the Rays are favored at -130 with a 54% implied win probability, the Royals' slightly better season and recent offensive spark give them a fighting chance in this matchup.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zach Eflin has gone to his curveball 7.8% less often this season (18.7%) than he did last year (26.5%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Josh Lowe has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 15.8% seasonal rate to 24% in the last two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Tampa Bay's 88-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the game: #27 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Out of all starters, Alec Marsh's fastball spin rate of 2515 rpm is in the 92nd percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

MJ Melendez has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 91-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games at home (+8.14 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 73 games (+22.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 5.43 vs Kansas City Royals 4.75

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