Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Picks 4/28/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 28, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Erick Fedde - White Sox
• Run Line: Rays -1.5 105, White Sox 1.5 -125
• Money Line: Rays -150, White Sox 125
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 57%
• Chicago White Sox - 43%

Projected Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 53.01%
• Chicago White Sox - 46.99%

Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox Game Preview & Prediction

On April 28, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays at Guaranteed Rate Field. As the home team, the White Sox will look to improve their disappointing 5-22 record this season. The Rays, with a record of 13-15, are also having a below-average season.

The White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Erick Fedde, who has shown promise with a 2.73 ERA this year. However, his 3.30 xFIP suggests that he may not maintain this level of performance going forward. On the other hand, Zack Littell will take the mound for the Rays. While Littell has a respectable 3.33 ERA, he is considered a below-average pitcher by MLB standards.

This game is the third in the series between these two teams, with the White Sox winning the previous game by a score of 8-7. In that game, the White Sox were considered big underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +165. The Rays, who were favored to win, had a closing Moneyline price of -190.

The White Sox offense has struggled this season, ranking as the worst in MLB. Their team batting average and home run numbers also rank in the bottom third of the league. On the other hand, the Rays offense has performed relatively better, ranking 25th overall in MLB. They excel in batting average and are among the top teams in home runs and stolen bases.

In terms of pitching, the White Sox bullpen ranks near the bottom of MLB, while the Rays bullpen sits at an average ranking. This could give the Rays a slight advantage in the later innings of the game.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the White Sox have a projected win probability of 47%, making it a close game. The Rays, with a projected win probability of 53%, are favored to win based on these projections.

With a current moneyline of +125, the White Sox are considered underdogs, while the Rays have a moneyline of -150, making them the betting favorites. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average-scoring game.

Both teams have key hitters to watch out for. Gavin Sheets has been the White Sox's best hitter this season, while Isaac Paredes leads the way for the Rays. Over the past week, Eloy Jimenez has been the standout hitter for the White Sox, while Richie Palacios has impressed for the Rays.

In terms of pitching matchups, Fedde's high groundball rate could pose a challenge for the powerful Rays offense, limiting their ability to hit home runs. On the other hand, Littell's low-walk approach may not be as effective against the patient White Sox hitters, who rank second in the league in walks.

As the game unfolds, it will be interesting to see if the White Sox can continue their recent success against the Rays or if the Rays will bounce back and secure a victory. With both teams aiming for a much-needed win, this matchup promises to be an exciting and closely contested game.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

With 6 hitters who share the same handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, Zack Littell ought to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Out of all the teams playing today, the worst outfield defense is that of the Chicago White Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Nicky Lopez is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Tampa Bay (#3-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 118 games (+13.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+12.25 Units / 23% ROI)

Rays vs White Sox Prediction: Rays 4.5 - White Sox 4

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