St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 5/9/2025

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on May 9, 2025, both teams find themselves in a fierce battle for momentum. Currently, the Nationals sit at 17-21, struggling in a season that has not gone as planned, while the Cardinals are slightly better off at 19-19, hovering around .500. Despite their middling records, both teams are looking to gain an edge in this National League matchup, especially with the Nationals projected to start Mitchell Parker, who has shown flashes of brilliance despite ranking as the 151st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats.

In their last outing, the Nationals faced a tough loss but are hoping to bounce back. Parker, who has a solid ERA of 3.48 this season, projects to pitch 5.6 innings today but is expected to allow 2.6 earned runs, which could be on the high side given his underwhelming 5.45 xFIP. His performance will be crucial against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 10th best in MLB this season.

On the other side, St. Louis counters with Erick Fedde, who has a below-average ERA of 4.78 and is similarly projected to allow 3.1 earned runs over approximately 5.7 innings. Fedde's track record this season and his 5.68 xFIP indicate he may also be due for regression.

The Nationals' offense ranks 14th in MLB. Meanwhile, the Cardinals boast the best batting average in MLB, giving them a slight edge in terms of offensive capability. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs and the Nationals offering a high implied team total of 4.30 runs, this game is shaping up to be competitive. Bettors should keep an eye on how these pitchers fare against solid lineups as both teams strive to improve their standing in this critical series opener.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (39.8 vs. 31.1% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Willson Contreras has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.6-mph average to last season's 95.1-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 5th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Among all SPs, Mitchell Parker's fastball spin rate of 2166 rpm is in the 10th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Nathaniel Lowe usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Erick Fedde.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 32 games (+3.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+3.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan has hit the RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.10 Units / 25% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.33, Washington Nationals 4.58

• Date: May 9, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

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