St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Prediction – 4/20/2025

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on April 20, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Mets, boasting a strong 14-7 record, are enjoying a solid season, while the Cardinals sit at 9-12, struggling to find their footing. In their previous matchup, the Mets edged out the Cardinals, continuing their upward trajectory, while the Cardinals look to bounce back from their recent woes.

On the mound, Clay Holmes is set to take the ball for the Mets. Currently ranked 13th among starting pitchers in MLB, Holmes has shown promise with a 2-1 record and a respectable 3.66 ERA this season. However, his advanced metrics suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky, with a FIP of 2.13 indicating he may perform even better moving forward. He projects to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 1.8 earned runs, which is elite.

Conversely, the Cardinals will counter with Sonny Gray, who has been effective this season with a 3-0 record and a 3.13 ERA, ranking him 22nd among MLB starters. However, his xERA of 3.90 suggests he may be due for a downturn. Gray's ability to strike out hitters is notable, but he faces a Mets offense that, while ranked 19th overall, is among the least strikeout-prone in the league.

Despite the Mets' average offensive rankings, they enter this game as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140. Their projected team total sits at a low 3.74 runs, but with Holmes on the mound, they have the advantage over a Cardinals lineup that has struggled against right-handed pitching. This matchup sets the stage for an intriguing contest as both teams vie for a crucial victory.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray's sinker utilization has jumped by 6% from last year to this one (17.8% to 23.8%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Alec Burleson has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 6.6% rate last season has dropped off to 0% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Clay Holmes performed well in his last game started and allowed 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Pete Alonso has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.9-mph average to last year's 89.7-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Brandon Nimmo has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+1.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+8.65 Units / 23% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.3, New York Mets 3.64

• Date: April 20, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Clay Holmes - Mets

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