St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 4/4/2025

St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on April 4, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position, sitting at 3-4 this season. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are off to a strong start with a 4-2 record. This Interleague matchup at Fenway Park marks the first game of the series, adding an extra layer of excitement.

In their last outing, the Red Sox struggled, continuing a trend of inconsistency that has plagued them early in the season. They will look to right the ship behind Walker Buehler, who is projected to start. Buehler's performance has been less than stellar, as evidenced by his 0-1 record and an alarming ERA of 8.31. Despite his low walk rate, Buehler's high flyball percentage could be problematic against a powerful Cardinals lineup that has already hit 11 home runs this season, ranking 4th in MLB.

Erick Fedde takes the mound for the Cardinals, boasting a much more impressive 1.50 ERA and a 1-0 record. Fedde is projected to face a Red Sox offense that ranks is averaging just under four runs per game. The projections suggest that while Fedde may not strike out many batters, he could exploit the Red Sox's high strikeout rate, which is the 2nd highest in MLB.

With the Red Sox favored at -140 and an implied team total of 4.81 runs, they will need to leverage their home-field advantage and find a way to break through against Fedde. The Cardinals, with an average implied total of 4.19 runs, will aim to capitalize on Buehler's struggles and continue their strong start to the season.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Walker Buehler has been given less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 7.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Extreme flyball batters like Trevor Story are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Erick Fedde.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Wong, Trevor Story, Triston Casas).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 124 games (+6.50 Units / 4% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)

• Date: April 4, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals
  • Walker Buehler - Red Sox

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