St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies Pick For 6/1/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 1, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals in a National League matchup scheduled for June 1, 2024. The game will take place at Citizens Bank Park, with the Phillies serving as the home team.

The Phillies have been having a remarkable season so far, boasting a record of 40-18. Their strong performance has earned them the third-best offense in MLB, with a ranking of #8 in team batting average and #10 in stolen bases. Their pitching staff is anchored by left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez, who has been impressive with a 9-1 record, a stellar 1.75 ERA, and a projection to pitch around 5.9 innings in this game.

On the other side, the Cardinals have had an average season with a record of 27-28. Their offense ranks #19 in MLB, but they have shown power with the fifth-most home runs in the league. The Cardinals will rely on right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray, who has been performing at an elite level with a 7-2 record and a 2.60 ERA. Gray is projected to pitch around 5.3 innings in this game.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gray is ranked as the #13 best starting pitcher in MLB, while Suarez holds the #24 spot. However, Suarez's peripherals suggest that he may not sustain his exceptional performance going forward.

In terms of betting odds, the Phillies are the favorites with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%. The Cardinals are the underdogs with a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%.

With the Phillies' strong offense and Suarez's solid pitching, they have a favorable matchup against the Cardinals' average offense. However, the Cardinals' power hitting could pose a challenge for Suarez, who relies on inducing groundballs.

The Game Total for this matchup is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game. Considering the Phillies' offensive prowess and the Cardinals' strong bullpen, this could be a tightly contested game.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Generating 17.3 outs per outing this year on average, Sonny Gray checks in at the 79th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Paul Goldschmidt has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 26.39 ft/sec to 26.88 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen projects as the 4th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

With a 0.9 gap between Ranger Suarez's 9.63 K/9 and his 8.72 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to perform worse in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Despite posting a .407 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Edmundo Sosa has been lucky given the .104 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .303.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Brandon Marsh has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 47 games (+19.35 Units / 34% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games (+3.35 Units / 6% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 42 games (+9.40 Units / 20% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.66 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.03

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