St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet – 5/12/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 12, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Bryse Wilson - Brewers

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on May 12, 2024, at American Family Field. As the home team, the Brewers will look to continue their impressive season, boasting a record of 24-15. On the other hand, the Cardinals have struggled, with a record of 15-24.

The Brewers will send right-handed pitcher Bryse Wilson to the mound, while the Cardinals will counter with right-hander Miles Mikolas. Wilson has been solid this season with a 2-1 record and an excellent ERA of 2.40. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may regress in future performances. Mikolas, on the other hand, has struggled with a 6.43 ERA, but his xFIP indicates that he may improve going forward.

In terms of betting odds, the Brewers are the favorites with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%. The Cardinals are the underdogs with a moneyline of +115 and an implied win probability of 44%. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring.

Considering the Brewers' strong season and the Cardinals' struggles, the Brewers have the advantage in this matchup. However, with Mikolas on the mound, the Cardinals' offense may capitalize on Wilson's high-flyball tendencies. It will be an intriguing game to watch as both teams look to secure a victory.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

In his last game started, Miles Mikolas allowed a monstrous 6 earned runs.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Masyn Winn's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 29.13 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.6 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Matt Carpenter pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Recording 80.7 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Bryse Wilson places him the 16th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

When it comes to his home runs, Jake Bauers has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His 25.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 34.5.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Milwaukee Brewers today holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .318, which is a good deal lower than their actual wOBA of .329 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 47 away games (+9.13 Units / 17% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 34 games (+18.40 Units / 42% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.78 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.92

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.