Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 4/19/2025

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On April 19, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Seattle Mariners in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays are riding high this season with a record of 12-8, while the Mariners sit at 10-10. After playing each other yesterday, with the Blue Jays securing a win, both teams will look to gain momentum heading into game two of the series.

The Blue Jays' projected starter, Jose Berrios, has struggled early this season, ranking as the 152nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Although Berrios sports a Win/Loss record of 1-1, his 5.16 ERA indicates he has yet to find his groove. However, his xFIP of 3.86 suggests he could be due for a turnaround, as it reflects some bad luck. Berrios’s projections indicate he will average 5.6 innings while allowing 3.0 earned runs, but he is expected to struggle with hits and walks, projecting to give up 5.5 hits and 1.7 walks—both alarming figures.

In contrast, the Mariners' Logan Gilbert is having a standout season, ranking 20th among MLB starters. With a 2.38 ERA and a solid Win/Loss record of 1-1, Gilbert projects to pitch 5.9 innings with 2.8 earned runs allowed. His impressive 38.1% strikeout rate is a significant advantage against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 3rd in least strikeouts this season, potentially giving Toronto a slight edge as they look to capitalize on Gilbert’s high-groundball tendencies.

While both offenses are in the middle of the pack statistically, the Blue Jays' offense ranks 5th in team batting average, showing their capability to get on base, unlike the Mariners’ 24th ranking in batting average. Betting markets reflect a close contest, with the Blue Jays' current moneyline at +105 suggesting they are underdogs at home, despite the favorable matchup for Gilbert. As always, the outcome will likely hinge on which pitcher can best control their game.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert's 2183-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a notable 149-rpm jump from last year's 2034-rpm mark.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Rowdy Tellez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.5-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 91-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Luke Raley hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #2 HR venue among all stadiums in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball hitters like Anthony Santander are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Gilbert.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Toronto Blue Jays (18.3 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy set of hitters of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+9.90 Units / 46% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.07, Toronto Blue Jays 4.47

• Date: April 19, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

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