Seattle Mariners VS Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick & Preview – 04/06/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Milwaukee Brewers Overview

• Date: April 6, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
  • D.L. Hall - Brewers
• Run Line: Mariners 1.5 -205, Brewers -1.5 175
• Money Line: Mariners 100, Brewers -120
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Seattle Mariners vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 48%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 52%

Projected Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 47.27%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 52.73%

Seattle Mariners vs Milwaukee Brewers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 6, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the Seattle Mariners in an Interleague matchup at American Family Field. The Brewers, with a record of 5-1, are having a great season, while the Mariners, with a record of 3-5, are struggling.

The Brewers will have the home-field advantage as they take on the Mariners. The game is the second in the series between these two teams, with the Brewers looking to extend their winning streak.

The Brewers are projected to start left-handed pitcher D.L. Hall, who has shown promise this season. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Hall is ranked as one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB. Despite this, his performance has been average, with an ERA of 4.50. His xFIP suggests that he has been lucky so far and may experience a decline in performance going forward.

On the other side, the Mariners are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bryce Miller. Miller has struggled this season, with an ERA of 7.20. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

In terms of offensive production, the Brewers rank as the 12th best team in MLB, while the Mariners rank 29th. The Brewers have a balanced offense, ranking poorly in team batting average but showing strength in stolen bases. The Mariners, on the other hand, have struggled to generate runs and have a low team batting average.

The Brewers have an advantage in their bullpen, which ranks as the 7th best in MLB, while the Mariners' bullpen is ranked 28th. This could play a crucial role in the later innings of the game.

When looking at the individual performances, Willy Adames stands out as the Brewers' best hitter this season. Over the last week, Adames has been on fire, recording 7 hits, 1 home run, and 1 stolen base, with a batting average of .389 and an OPS of 1.111. For the Mariners, Luis Urias has been their standout hitter over the last 7 games, with an OPS of 0.861.

In terms of projections, Hall is a low-strikeout pitcher going up against a high-strikeout Mariners offense. This could give Hall an advantage as he capitalizes on the Mariners' weakness. However, the projections indicate that Hall may struggle, as he is projected to allow an average of 2.1 earned runs, 3.7 hits, and 1.8 walks per game.

Miller, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 5.3 hits, and 1.6 walks per game. While his numbers are average, he has the potential to improve based on his xFIP.

The game total for this matchup is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The Brewers are favored with a moneyline of -120, giving them a 52% implied win probability, while the Mariners have a moneyline of +100, with a 48% implied win probability.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Mitch Haniger hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

DL Hall has been given less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 22.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners 4.54 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.54

Get daily MLB picks here.