Seattle Mariners VS Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick & Preview – 4/5/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Milwaukee Brewers Overview

• Date: April 5, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
• Run Line: Mariners -1.5 (+170), Brewers +1.5 (-205)
• Money Line: Mariners +100, Brewers -120
• Total (Over/Under): 8.0

Seattle Mariners vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 50%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 54.55%

Projected Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 41.09%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 58.91%

Seattle Mariners vs Milwaukee Brewers Game Preview & Prediction

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to face off against the Seattle Mariners in an interleague matchup at American Family Field on April 5, 2024. The Brewers, boasting a record of 4-1 this season, are having a great start to the year. In contrast, the Mariners have struggled with a 3-4 record, making it a rocky start for them.

The Brewers will rely on Freddy Peralta, a talented right-handed pitcher, to lead their rotation. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Peralta is ranked as the #7 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an elite player. On average, Peralta is projected to pitch 5.9 innings, allow 2.0 earned runs, and strike out 7.2 batters per game. However, he tends to allow 4.2 hits and 1.9 walks, which can be challenging.

On the other side, the Mariners will turn to Logan Gilbert, another right-handed pitcher. Gilbert is ranked as the #89 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings, which still puts him above average. His average projection includes pitching 5.6 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, and striking out 5.3 batters per game. However, he tends to struggle with allowing 5.3 hits and 1.4 walks.

In terms of offensive performance, the Brewers currently rank as the 12th best team in MLB, with a decent showing across most categories. However, their team batting average ranks 27th, indicating room for improvement. On the other hand, the Mariners rank as the 29th best team in MLB, with room for improvement in batting average as well.

Overall, this game showcases the Brewers' strong start to the season and their solid pitching with Freddy Peralta leading the way. The Mariners, on the other hand, have been struggling but hope to turn things around with Logan Gilbert on the mound. It will be an intriguing matchup to see if the Brewers' offense can overcome Gilbert's pitching and if the Mariners can find a way to produce against Peralta. With the limited projected run production from THE BAT X, it could be a tight and low-scoring game.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Throwing 91.8 adjusted pitches per outing since the start of last season on average, Logan Gilbert ranks in the 81st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Cal Raleigh has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 7th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

As it relates to his strikeout talent, Freddy Peralta projects as the 7th-best starting pitcher in baseball currently, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+10.95 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 44 away games (+10.69 Units / 18% ROI)
• Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.45 Units / 30% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners 3.6 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.1

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.